Head coach Scott Robertson shrugs off lopsided draw that puts New Zealand on a quarter-final collision course with world champions South Africa.
Scott Robertson isn’t wasting energy on the anomalies of World Rugby’s fixture computer.
After a draw in Sydney that placed the All Blacks in Pool A alongside hosts Australia, Chile, and Hong Kong China, the reality for 2027 is already stark. While the pool stage looks manageable, the reward for topping the group is a likely quarter-final against South Africa.
The world’s two highest-ranked sides are effectively locked into a knockout meeting before the tournament even reaches its business end. It is a structural quirk reminiscent of the 2023 tournament, but for Robertson, there is only one viable response.
“You have to embrace it,” Robertson said, speaking to Forever Sports on Thursday.
“You’re going to have to face someone with their form to win it. If that’s the way it works out, then it’s just part of the draw.”
The Quarter-Final Trap
The format for Australia 2027 includes a new Round of 16, introduced to accommodate the expansion to 24 teams.
Should the All Blacks top Pool A, their first knockout assignment would likely be against Pacific neighbours Tonga or Samoa. Navigate that, and the Springboks—almost certain winners of a Pool B featuring Italy, Georgia, and Romania—await in the last eight.
It means one of the tournament favourites will be on the plane home before the semi-finals.
“That’s what you sort of felt – you’d split the two sides from the pool phase and you’d merge somewhere in the middle,” Robertson admitted, hinting at the logic usually applied to tournament seedings. “That’s one of the anomalies of the format.”
The alternative path offers little relief. If the All Blacks stumble against the Wallabies in the pool stages—potentially in a blockbuster tournament opener in Perth—they would flip to the other side of the draw. There, a quarter-final against England, currently ranked third, would likely loom.
Familiar Foes
The prospect of facing the Springboks in a do-or-die match is hardly novel for this All Blacks generation, but familiarity might breed preparation. By the time 2027 arrives, the two heavyweights will have met frequently, including next year’s “Greatest Rivalry” tour.
“We play South Africa six times before the World Cup,” Robertson noted. “There’s a lot to do before that. There’s a lot of rugby and chances for us to grow and get better as a team.”
He pointed to the razor-thin margins that defined the Springboks’ 2023 triumph—winning their quarter-final, semi-final, and final by a single point each—as evidence that World Cup success often comes down to composure rather than the draw itself.
“You have to have everything online—all the permutations, your self-control. There’s going to be a card that can play a massive role in a game… everyone will be homing in on that.”
Commercial Reality
The timing of the draw, held two years out from kickoff, remains a point of contention. While an improvement on the three-year lead-in for 2023—which resulted in a lopsided bracket where the world’s top four teams cannibalised each other—it still risks outdated rankings distorting the pools.
World Rugby cites commercial imperatives, specifically the lead time needed to market and sell travel packages, as the driver for the early schedule.
For the players, the immediate focus is the excitement of a tournament on their doorstep.
“The new format’s exciting,” said captain Scott Barrett. “Obviously, having Australia in our pool is going to make for some fireworks in the round robin stage. You’re going to have to win four big games in a row and that will certainly put the pressure on the depth of squads.”
With the pools set and the bracket defined, the road to 2027 is clear. It isn’t easy, and it certainly isn’t balanced. But for Robertson, the mission remains unchanged: to be the best, you eventually have to beat the best.
