Australian rugby has had its share of turbulent seasons, but few periods have felt as bruising as the Wallabies’ recent tour of Europe. Four losses, growing public frustration, and an all-too-familiar conversation about the team’s identity created the perfect storm for speculation. Yet despite the criticism, Rugby Australia (RA) is standing firmly behind Joe Schmidt and resisting calls for drastic change.
Instead of choosing panic, RA is choosing patience — a rare decision in elite sport, and one that may reveal far more about the organisation’s long-term strategy than this month’s results suggest.
A Year Defined by Harsh Lessons, Not Crisis
The Wallabies’ European campaign exposed shortcomings that extend far beyond individual errors. The defeats weren’t just narrow losses; they were indicators of a national programme caught between eras — a team fighting to modernise under Schmidt, while dealing with legacy issues that have accumulated for almost a decade.
Where supporters expected instant solutions, RA appears to have accepted a more uncomfortable truth: rebuilding a broken system takes longer than rebuilding a game plan.
Schmidt’s tenure to date has not produced the turnaround many hoped for. The Wallabies have struggled to close matches, faltered under pressure, and remain inconsistent in key decision-making moments. But RA argues these problems stem from structural weaknesses, not coaching instability — and replacing Schmidt midway through a plan would worsen the cycle that has haunted Australian rugby for years.
Stability as a Strategic Choice
Behind the scenes, RA has been working on a transitional coaching roadmap for more than a year. Schmidt’s late arrival, combined with the upcoming handover to Les Kiss, created a delicate timeline that RA does not intend to disrupt — even if results are sour.
From RA’s perspective, continuity between coaching eras is more valuable than the short-term satisfaction of making a public change. After cycling through coaches at a speed that mirrored the team’s inconsistency, the organisation seems determined to avoid what many insiders call “another reset without a foundation.”
This approach reflects one of the biggest lessons RA took from the chaotic post-Dave Rennie period: every fast decision has long-term cost. And this time, they’re refusing to pay it.
A Team That Isn’t Backwards — Just Not Winning
Look beyond the scorelines, and Schmidt has introduced notable changes. The Wallabies’ defensive shape, attacking tempo, and breakdown discipline show signs of improvement. But progress is uneven and overshadowed by crucial lapses — moments where the team should close out tests but instead drifts away.
RA leadership insists these moments are not evidence of decline, but of a squad still learning to execute a more demanding style of play. To them, the current struggle is not failure — it is growing pain.
The inconvenient part? Growing pains rarely look good on the scoreboard.
A Rebuild Built on Timing, Not Emotion
One factor influencing RA’s decision is the proximity of major tournaments. The Nations Championship and future Rugby World Cup cycles require strategic alignment, not another emergency pivot. Ordering a mid-season change would leave Kiss starting from zero, losing months of integration that Schmidt is already laying down.
In short: stability now means momentum later.
RA believes Schmidt is establishing foundational standards that the next coaching era can build upon — systems, training rhythms, squad depth, and leadership structure. Even if the Wallabies aren’t winning, RA argues the groundwork is being laid.
It’s an argument not every fan wants to hear, but one that makes sense inside a high-performance system.
A Double Rebuild: Not Just the Team, but the Organisation
Quietly, the Wallabies’ on-field struggles are only one part of a much larger transformation within Australian rugby. RA is revamping its pathways, reviewing the Super Rugby ecosystem, and attempting to stabilise an organisation that has been under structural pressure for years.
A coaching change would distract from this broader plan — and RA seems determined to fix the machine before blaming the driver.
This is where their decision becomes clearer: Australia’s issues didn’t start with Schmidt, and they won’t be resolved by replacing him. For RA, the rebuild is bigger than one man.
Les Kiss Awaits — But the Handover Won’t Be a Rescue Mission
The incoming head coach, Les Kiss, inherits both opportunity and burden. He will take control in July, but RA wants him to step into a team with some level of clarity — not chaos.
RA’s confidence in its succession plan signals that Kiss is not arriving as a firefighter, but as a builder. His success, however, will depend heavily on the structural foundations Schmidt establishes today. That is why RA is holding the line, even as public noise grows.
The Verdict: Stability Over Shockwaves
Fans may not agree with the approach, but RA’s decision is part of a broader, long-term restructuring strategy. The Wallabies’ losses in Europe were painful, but not enough to derail the organisation’s calculated roadmap.
Australian rugby has tried panic many times. Now, RA is trying patience.
Only time will reveal whether this gamble restores the Wallabies or merely delays the inevitable — but for now, the Schmidt era continues, not because of results, but because of what RA believes comes next
