Eben Etzebeth called four straight Tests against the All Blacks the ultimate test in rugby. He said it in Baltimore, three days before the one that settles the series.
Eben Etzebeth has won two World Cups. Asked in Baltimore where a fourth straight Test against the All Blacks ranks, he reached for neither of them.
“I think it’s the ultimate test for any [rugby] player to play against them and to do it four weekends in a row.”
Same opponent. Same pack. Four Saturdays in a row, and the last one settles everything.
So which way does it go at M&T Bank Stadium? The comments are open.
The Test that settles it
South Africa lead Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry 2-1. Win in Baltimore and the series is theirs 3-1. Lose and it finishes 2-2, with the trophy shared and nobody’s name on it.
Kick-off is 17:10 in Baltimore, 23:10 in South Africa.
Etzebeth, the most-capped player in Springboks history, was speaking at the Springboks press conference in Baltimore on Wednesday. Saturday will be his 146th Test.
New Zealand travelled without Ardie Savea, whose shoulder went in the first half in Soweto. South Africa are without Cheslin Kolbe, whose jaw broke after nine minutes of the same match.
Neither country has played the other in a full series since 1996. All of that sits on a fixture staged an ocean away from both of them.
Read also: if you need the whole thing in one place, here is every fixture, result and kick-off time in the series.
Four weekends, one opponent, and the bruises to prove it
The four-in-a-row line was not a compliment to the schedule. It was a description of what it has cost.
“It’s been tough. It’s been some bruising battles, but I think that’s what we all want to do and we love every second of it.”
Three of those weekends are done. New Zealand won the first 33-16 at Ellis Park. South Africa took Cape Town 33-26, then won the third Test 29-24 in Soweto.
Etzebeth started all three. Seven days apart each time. Then a transatlantic flight, and a fourth.
Asked how a fourth Test in four weekends sits on the body, he did not dress it up.
“It is brutal, but it’s also with that a massive privilege, like I said, to play against the All Blacks four weeks in a row. It’s great for all of us.”
The preparation got easier, not harder
Every preview of a fourth meeting says the same thing: it is the hardest week of the lot to plan, because both sides have run out of places to hide. Etzebeth says the opposite has happened.
“The preparation part, I think it was tough for the first Test match, and now I think it almost went less preparation every week, because we know them. We obviously know one or two tweaks will be made… it wasn’t too challenging. Like I said, we know what’s coming. One or two small changes.”
Take him at his word and Saturday is not a tactical puzzle at all. Three weeks of video have emptied the surprise out of it, and what is left is collisions, set piece and whoever holds their shape longest at the end.
What Erasmus kept, and what he had to change
Rassie Erasmus has not touched the pack that won in Soweto. Etzebeth packs down at lock beside Ruan Nortje, with Lood de Jager covering from the bench.
Both changes are behind the scrum. Damian Willemse returns at fullback in Kolbe’s place, and Morné van den Berg gets a first Test start at scrum-half.
Malcolm Marx throws into the lineout, as he has all series.
What to watch in the first ten minutes
There is a tell in the opening exchanges that says whether a second row is sharp, and almost nobody at home watches for it.
A lineout jump is a contract between three men and a hooker. The jumper dips and goes. The front lifter takes him under the thigh, the back lifter above the hip.
The hooker has usually let the ball go before the jumper is anywhere near the top. Timing like that is repetition, built in a hundred throws a week with the same two lifters.
The tell is where the ball meets the jumper’s hands. Caught at the top with the arms locked out, and the timing is there. Plucked in front of his face, and the throw arrived before the lift did.
So watch South Africa’s first two lineouts. A pack that is a fraction late in the air will be a fraction late everywhere else. New Zealand have scored 83 points in this series against the world champions.
They are brilliant after a defeat. This is the other job.
He was asked what lets this group flick a switch after a bad start, and the answer was not mystique.
“Every time we don’t start well, we pull together. It’s happened in the [British and Irish Lions] series where we went one down. In both World Cups we lost a pool game.”
The receipts are real. South Africa went 1-0 down to the Lions in 2021 and won the series 2-1. They lost a pool match at the 2019 World Cup and won it. They lost one at the 2023 World Cup and won that too.
Which leaves a question nobody in the Springboks camp wants asked out loud. This group is excellent at responding to a defeat. Baltimore asks them to close something out instead.
He was also asked whether all that experience is still an asset in a squad that is getting older.
“I know we are getting a bit older, but for me personally, it feels like we’re working a lot harder than what we did when we were a bit younger.”
The year that got Eben Etzebeth here
Saturday is Etzebeth’s fifth Test of the year, and there is a reason the number is so small.
He was red-carded in Cardiff in November for contact with the eyes of Wales back-rower Alex Mann. The ban that followed ran to 12 matches, and to the end of March.
His first game back, at Connacht in April, lasted under an hour before a hip injury ended his club season. He was in the frame for the England Test in July and withdrew during the week.
He came back in Buenos Aires in August and played the full 80. Asked in Baltimore about the whole stretch, he never mentioned the ban once.
“It was tough to watch the guys from the side, obviously in the mix for that England game and then had to withdraw in the week.”
He did not spend the months feeling sorry for himself either.
“I spent a lot of time with my family, which was great. But for me it was just getting back to fitness and getting back in the team. Obviously every year you try to be a better version of yourself and you try to add to your skill set. I think the time off gave me that opportunity as well.”
That is 252 days between Test matches, three attempts at a comeback and one full season of a career gone. It ends on Saturday night with a series on the line, which is roughly the opposite of easing back in.
Frequently asked
What time is the fourth Test in Baltimore?
Saturday, 17:10 local time at M&T Bank Stadium. That is 23:10 in South Africa and 22:10 in the UK.
What happens if the All Blacks win in Baltimore?
The series finishes 2-2 and the trophy is shared. South Africa cannot lose this series any more. They can only fail to win it outright.
How many caps does Eben Etzebeth have?
Saturday is his 146th Test for South Africa. SA Rugby listed him on 141 at the end of last season, and he has played four Tests since.
Who is missing for the fourth Test?
Ardie Savea for New Zealand, out with the shoulder he dislocated in Soweto, and Cheslin Kolbe for South Africa, whose jaw broke in the same match. Damian Willemse takes Kolbe’s place at fullback.
Read next: the numbers behind this series are stranger than the scoreboard, because New Zealand have outscored South Africa across the three Tests and are still behind.
Your turn
Two ways to see Saturday.
Either three weeks of collisions have taken more out of New Zealand, who have to win, than out of a South African side that only has to avoid losing. Or a team with nothing to protect is exactly the team you do not want in front of you in week four.
Pick one before kick-off: South Africa take it 3-1, or New Zealand square it and share the trophy. Etzebeth has told you where he ranks this one. The scoreboard settles the rest.
