Cheslin Kolbe broke his jaw in the ninth minute at FNB Stadium and will not travel to Baltimore. Rassie Erasmus confirmed the Cheslin Kolbe injury within an hour of the final whistle on Saturday 5 September and named four other Springboks staying in South Africa with him. SA Rugby has given no timeline. The site’s estimate, and the reasoning is below, is eight to ten weeks before he is back in a matchday squad, which puts the November Tests against Italy and France in doubt. Who wears 15 in Baltimore is the argument at the bottom of this page, and the comments are open for it.
Kolbe’s night lasted nine minutes and 20 seconds. He covered Will Jordan’s counter-attack from inside the All Blacks’ own 22 in the seventh minute and made a second tackle that mattered before the first yellow card of the evening. When Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu went to the bin at 9:20, Kolbe went off at the same time and Manie Libbok came on. SA Rugby magazine reported it at the time as a head assessment. The diagnosis after South Africa’s 29-24 win at FNB Stadium was a fracture.
“Cheslin broke his jaw,” Erasmus said at the post-match press conference. Nobody in the room asked how long.
He still got a 7.5 in the Springboks ratings for ten minutes’ work, which tells you what the nine minutes looked like. Kolbe posted on Instagram after the match.
How long will Cheslin Kolbe be out? Six weeks without contact, eight to ten before a squad
Three things behind the number.
The medicine first. A displaced jaw fracture is usually plated and held for four to six weeks, and the bone takes about six weeks to knit. A review of professional rugby players who came back from facial fractures, published in 2019, found the two largest series returning players to sport at around seven weeks, against the eight to twelve weeks conventionally advised for collision sports. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii had jaw surgery in May last year and was sidelined for at least four weeks before the Lions series.
Then Kolbe’s own precedent, because he has done this before. He broke his jaw against Wales in Cape Town on Saturday 16 July 2022, in what Rugby365 described as a tackle attempt with his head on the wrong side, and was ruled out until September. He was back playing 80 minutes for Toulon inside about eight weeks, and the Springboks recalled him for Dublin on 5 November, sixteen weeks after the break, a gap that was about selection rather than the jaw. Speaking on the Springboks’ own channel the following summer, as Planet Rugby reported, he called the jaw the hardest of a run of injuries that also included a broken thumb and a torn hamstring: “I couldn’t eat for six or seven weeks.”
So: no contact for about six weeks, and a matchday squad in eight to ten. From 5 September that is late October at the earliest and mid-November at the outside.
Baltimore, on Saturday 12 September, is gone. The November Tests, Italy on 7 November, France in Paris on 13 November and Ireland in Dublin on 21 November, sit nine to eleven weeks out. The first two look unlikely. Dublin is possible if the fracture is clean, but Kolbe would arrive there with no rugby behind him, because Tokyo Sungoliath’s League One season, which began in mid-December last year, will not have started. SA Rugby’s October decision, then, is a fit Kolbe with no match minutes or a December return.
If you think eight to ten weeks is cautious, the 2022 dates are above, and the comments are open.
Read also: what the Springboks lose: 18 points from the tee and every kick landed the last time he finished a Test.
Who stays, who flies
Erasmus read the list from memory and lost count halfway through, so the version below is the one RugbyPass reported from the same answer.
“Carlu Sadie, Boan Venter, and Ntuthuko Mchunu will all be staying behind with Cheslin as well as Ben-Jason Dixon, who still has concussion symptoms.”
Five men, then. Kolbe with the jaw. Dixon with the concussion symptoms he picked up in the first Test at Ellis Park. Three props, Carlü Sadie, Boan Venter and Ntuthuko Mchunu, with no reason given for any of them.
Going the other way: “Damian Willemse will be ready for next, so will Aphelele Fassi.” Willemse pulled a hamstring in the first half in Cape Town and missed Soweto. Fassi has not featured in the series. Canan Moodie, who pulled a hamstring in the first week of the series, “is now getting fit too”.
And one name that only makes sense once Kolbe is out of the picture.
“With Cheslin staying home, Herschel is flying with us. Canan Moodie is now getting fit too, and Grant will cover the wing too.”
Herschel Jantjies is a scrum-half. He would have stayed at home. He travels because Grant Williams, back from an ankle injury, can cover wing as well as nine, which on Erasmus’s telling leaves the squad wanting a third specialist scrum-half if Williams ends up on the wing. A fullback’s jaw has rearranged the Springboks half-back pecking order.
The fortnight before was stop-start too. Kolbe was ruled out of Cape Town on the Monday with a hamstring and an ankle, started on the Saturday and kicked 18 points, then was moved to fullback for Soweto because Willemse was unavailable. Nine minutes later the man he was covering for was, in Erasmus’s word, ready.
What the Cheslin Kolbe injury means for Baltimore
South Africa lead Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry 2-1 and cannot lose it. A 2-2 finish splits the trophy, which is made in two halves for the purpose, and each union keeps one. Erasmus’s own reading on Saturday was blunt: “I know we can’t lose it any more.” Winning it is a different job.
The fullback shirt is the selection question. Willemse wore it in Cape Town until his hamstring went. Fassi is the alternative Erasmus named in the same breath.
New Zealand fly with problems of their own. Ardie Savea scored twice and then left the field with a shoulder injury at the half hour and, Dave Rennie confirmed, will not travel. Quinn Tupaea’s knee is being assessed. Both squads boarded the same charter on Saturday night.
Read next: both camps had already called Baltimore the decider, and only one of them had ruled out a draw.
Frequently asked
How long will Cheslin Kolbe be out?
SA Rugby has not given a timeline. The site’s estimate, based on published recovery data for professional rugby players and Kolbe’s own 2022 jaw fracture, is about six weeks without contact and eight to ten weeks before he is in a matchday squad. That rules out Baltimore on 12 September and makes the November Tests against Italy and France unlikely, with Ireland on 21 November the earliest realistic return.
Which Springboks are not travelling to Baltimore?
Erasmus named Cheslin Kolbe, Carlü Sadie, Boan Venter, Ntuthuko Mchunu and Ben-Jason Dixon as staying in South Africa. Dixon still has concussion symptoms. No injury reason was given for the three props.
Who replaces Kolbe for the fourth Test?
Erasmus said Damian Willemse and Aphelele Fassi will both be ready, and that Canan Moodie is getting fit. Herschel Jantjies travels as a third scrum-half so that Grant Williams can cover the wing.
Your turn
Willemse or Fassi at 15 in Baltimore. Willemse was the first-choice fullback before his hamstring went in Cape Town, and the All Blacks’ kicking game was built to test whoever stands there. Fassi has the left boot and the aerial game and has not played a minute of the series. One knows the system, the other has fresh legs and no series minutes. Which one starts? Settle it below.
