“There’s no point playing this way and then going to a World Cup and trying to play risk-free… footy.” Dave Rennie, in Sydney.
Dave Rennie was asked whether the All Blacks can win a World Cup playing the way they did in Sydney.
He did not hedge. “Yeah, I do. I do believe that,” he said. “I mean, there’s no point playing this way and then going to a World Cup and trying to play risk-free… footy.”
Rennie was speaking in Sydney on Saturday 17 October, an hour after a 43-21 win over the Wallabies. His side gave the ball away ten times in that game and still won by 22.
Is Rennie right, or does a World Cup still go to the side that wins the arm wrestle? Have your say in the comments.
“No point playing this way”: the whole answer
He kept going.
“So, we’re well aware… you can put yourself under pressure the way that we’re trying to play, but we’re also back ourselves that we’ll… profit more than we’ll suffer in those situations.”
“Profit more than we’ll suffer” is a ledger, and Rennie admits it has a column of losses.
He accepts the turnovers that come with this game and bets the other column is bigger.
Ten turnovers lost, and a 22-point win
Sydney showed both columns in one evening. Stuff’s full-time numbers had New Zealand losing ten turnovers and the Wallabies 19. The All Blacks won six turnovers, the Wallabies three.
The first 43 minutes were the profit. It was 43-7 by then, and Rennie put it down to ball retention.
“When we’re able to hang on to the ball, we can play quick.”
The rest was the loss. The Wallabies won the last 37 minutes 14-0, and Rennie was blunt about why.
“We had two or three opportunities and we turned the ball over and [the] Wallabies are lethal from turnover ball and counter.”
Line breaks finished 16-15. Possession was 45% to 55% against them. On paper that is a close Test. On the scoreboard it was a hiding, because New Zealand turned their chances into points and Australia did not.
The arm wrestle Rennie says would be a struggle
Rennie was still answering the same question when he went further.
“I don’t think you want all the teams in the world playing the same game. So, I think if you look at the Wallabies, they’re pretty similar to us. I think they’ll want to play and it’s a point of difference, part of [the] DNA of both sides, I think. So, you know, if you want to just get into arm wrestles… with a couple of the big sides in the world, you know, it’ll be a struggle.”
He named nobody. His point is that an arm wrestle is the wrong fight to pick against the biggest sides.
South Africa won the last World Cup by a point, three times
South Africa won the 2023 World Cup with three one-point knockout wins:
| Match | Score |
|---|---|
| Quarter-final, Paris, 15 October 2023 | France 28-29 South Africa |
| Semi-final, Paris, 21 October 2023 | England 15-16 South Africa |
| Final, Paris, 28 October 2023 | New Zealand 11-12 South Africa |
Source: 2023 Rugby World Cup knockout stage results.
Richie Mo’unga, who played in that final, says the Springboks have got better since.
In matches that tight, one lost ball on halfway decides the tournament.
Rennie’s plan works if the All Blacks are ahead before a game gets that tight. Sydney showed the risk: after the 43rd minute, they did not score again.
He said as much himself at the end of the night.
“Can we be better? Absolutely.”
Dave Rennie’s first Rugby World Cup 2027 test is in Sydney
The first test of the plan has a date. The All Blacks meet the Wallabies in Pool A at Accor Stadium on Saturday 9 October 2027, Rugby Australia confirmed, the same ground as Saturday. The full Pool A draw adds Chile and Hong Kong China.
Rennie’s description of the Wallabies as “pretty similar to us” makes that a tempo match. The knockouts will not be.
Rennie is right on the part that matters most. A side cannot spend a year and a half playing one way and switch to risk-free rugby in October.
The bet still needs a fallback. A team built for tempo can win a World Cup. It just has to make sure it is never 11-12 with ten minutes left.
The All Blacks’ channel has the whole press conference.
Your turn: tempo or arm wrestle?
Rennie says a side that plays like this cannot switch to risk-free rugby for a World Cup. South Africa won the last one by a point in three straight knockout games.
Who wins in 2027: the side with the tempo, or the side that wins the arm wrestle? One word below.
Frequently asked
What is the Dave Rennie World Cup plan for 2027?
He said there is “no point” playing expansive rugby and then trying to play risk-free at a World Cup, and that the All Blacks back themselves to “profit more than we’ll suffer”. He said it in Sydney on 17 October 2026.
When do the All Blacks play the Wallabies at Rugby World Cup 2027?
In Pool A at Accor Stadium in Sydney on Saturday 9 October 2027.
How did South Africa win the 2023 World Cup?
With three one-point knockout wins: 29-28 against France, 16-15 against England and 12-11 against New Zealand in the final.
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