Five teams can still reach the first Nations Championship final, and only two will get there. France, England and Ireland are fighting for the northern place, New Zealand and South Africa for the southern one, with one round left on Saturday 21 November.
Only the team that finishes top of each six-team Nations Championship table plays in the final at Twickenham on Sunday 29 November. After Round 5, France lead the Northern Hemisphere table on 21 points, one ahead of England and Ireland. New Zealand lead the Southern Hemisphere table on 22, one ahead of South Africa, even after losing 35–28 to Wales in Cardiff on Saturday.
On Friday night Rassie Erasmus said the Springboks had “basically killed our dreams” by losing 21–19 to France in Paris. A day later Wales beat the All Blacks 35–28 in Cardiff, but New Zealand scored four tries and lost by seven, so they took two bonus points. South Africa are one point behind with one game left.
Scotland completed Round 5 with a 15–12 win over Australia at Murrayfield on Sunday (match report, Scotland player ratings and Scotland v Australia stats). That result did not change who leads either table, but it ended Scotland’s slim hopes of reaching the final.
So who is in your final: France, England or Ireland, against New Zealand or South Africa?
The Nations Championship Tables After Round 5
France top the Northern Hemisphere table on 21 points. England and Ireland have 20, Scotland and Wales 15, and Italy one.
| Pos | Northern Hemisphere | P | W | L | PD | BP | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 5 | 4 | 1 | +80 | 5 | 21 |
| 2 | England | 5 | 4 | 1 | +134 | 4 | 20 |
| 3 | Ireland | 5 | 4 | 1 | +57 | 4 | 20 |
| 4 | Scotland | 5 | 3 | 2 | −8 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Wales | 5 | 3 | 2 | −28 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Italy | 5 | 0 | 5 | −158 | 1 | 1 |
New Zealand top the Southern Hemisphere table on 22 points. South Africa have 21, Argentina 11, Australia nine, Japan five and Fiji none.
| Pos | Southern Hemisphere | P | W | L | PD | BP | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand | 5 | 4 | 1 | +66 | 6 | 22 |
| 2 | South Africa | 5 | 4 | 1 | +138 | 5 | 21 |
| 3 | Argentina | 5 | 2 | 3 | −27 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Australia | 5 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Japan | 5 | 1 | 4 | −96 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Fiji | 5 | 0 | 5 | −161 | 0 | 0 |
Tables after Scotland v Australia, updated 5.10pm GMT, Sunday 15 November. Scotland are above Wales on points difference (both have three wins). P played, W won, L lost, PD points difference, BP bonus points. Source: Nations Championship. Our full rugby tables update after every game.
Round 5 also brought Argentina’s 19–14 win over Italy in Genoa, England’s 78–15 win over Japan at Twickenham and Ireland’s 43–15 win over Fiji in Dublin, all on Saturday.
How Does The Nations Championship Final Work?
Twelve teams sit in two tables of six: the Six Nations sides in the north; South Africa, New Zealand, Australia, Argentina, Fiji and Japan in the south. Each team plays the six in the other table once, so England v New Zealand and Ireland v South Africa on Saturday count in both races. A win is worth four points and a draw two, with a bonus point for four tries and another for losing by seven or fewer.
After six rounds, each table is ranked one to six and the teams meet their opposite number at Twickenham from 27 to 29 November. First plays first in the final, second plays second for third place, and so on down to sixth v sixth. The competition’s own site confirms it: the Grand Final is “1st vs 1st”. Finishing second, even by one point, means the third-place match.
If two teams finish level on points, the order is decided by most wins, then points difference, then tries difference, then most tries, then a coin toss. There is no head-to-head rule, because teams in the same table never meet.
‘Basically Killed Our Dreams’: How Wales Changed The Southern Race
After France beat the Springboks 21–19 in Paris on Friday 13 November, Erasmus blamed the missing fourth try, saying he thought his side had “basically killed our dreams” for the Nations Championship. At that point South Africa had 21 points from five games. New Zealand had 20 with two to play.
Wales changed that the next afternoon. The All Blacks lost 35–28 in Cardiff but scored four tries and lost by seven, so they took two bonus points and moved to 22. Both sides now have one game left, and New Zealand are one point ahead.
The Springboks no longer need a miracle. They need one more point than New Zealand on Saturday.
Dave Rennie knows what is coming. “We expect a lot more of ourselves and need to see a response at Twickenham next week,” the All Blacks coach said in Cardiff.
What Do France, England And Ireland Need?
France (21 points, home to Argentina, 8.10pm GMT): a bonus-point win guarantees top spot. A win without the bonus point is enough unless England or Ireland also win with a bonus point. Then it goes to points difference, where England start 54 ahead of France and Ireland start 23 behind. France kick off last of the three, so they will know exactly what they need.
England (20, home to New Zealand, 2.10pm GMT): England go top if they take one more point than France on Saturday and at least as many as Ireland. At worst that leaves them level on points, and a tie goes to England unless France make up a 54-point gap in points difference or Ireland a 77-point one. A bonus-point win over the All Blacks is enough unless France also win with a bonus point.
Ireland (20, home to South Africa, 4.40pm GMT): Ireland realistically need to beat the Springboks. A bonus-point win puts them top if France do not win and England do not also take a bonus-point win. A win without the bonus point works only if France and England both fail to win. A tie with England goes to points difference, where Ireland are 77 behind.
Scotland, Wales and Italy: none of them can reach the final. Scotland and Wales can finish on 20 at most, and France already have 21. Italy are out and will finish sixth.
What Do New Zealand And South Africa Need?
New Zealand (22, away to England, 2.10pm GMT): the All Blacks top the table if they take at least as many points at Twickenham as South Africa take in Dublin. A bonus-point win settles it.
South Africa (21, away to Ireland, 4.40pm GMT): the Springboks need one more point than New Zealand on the day. A tie on points goes their way. New Zealand cannot draw level with more wins, and South Africa’s points difference (+138) is 72 better than New Zealand’s (+66), so the All Blacks would need a 72-point swing. So if New Zealand lose without a bonus point, a losing bonus point in Dublin would be enough. If the All Blacks win without a bonus point, a Springboks bonus-point win would still send them through.
England v New Zealand finishes before Ireland v South Africa kicks off, so Erasmus’s side will know their target.
READ MORE: England v New Zealand: Eddie Jones Says Beaten All Blacks Are ‘Violent’
Everyone else: Australia can reach 14 at most and Argentina 16, both short of New Zealand’s 22. Japan and Fiji are out.
READ MORE: Rassie Erasmus: Boks ‘killed our dreams’ in Nations Championship
What Did Scotland v Australia Change?
Scotland beat Australia 15–12 at Murrayfield on Sunday. Both sides scored two tries, so neither took a try bonus point. Australia lost by three and took a losing bonus point.
That puts Scotland on 15 points, level with Wales. Both have three wins, so points difference splits them: Scotland’s −8 is 20 better than Wales’ −28, and Scotland go fourth.
It also ends Scotland’s final hopes. Before kick-off, only a four-try win kept them alive on paper. Now even a bonus-point win over Japan on Saturday would take them to 20, one short of France.
Australia move to nine points, two behind Argentina in third. They can finish on 14 at most, so the southern final place stays between New Zealand and South Africa.
Fourth in each table meet in the seventh-place match on Sunday 29 November, so as things stand Scotland and Australia would meet again at Twickenham. Scotland play Japan at 2.10pm GMT on Saturday and Wales host Australia at 8.10pm GMT, so Wales will know exactly what they need to take fourth back. Third play third in the fifth-place match on Friday 27 November.
Round 6 Fixtures: Saturday 21 November
| Kick-off (GMT) | Fixture | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10pm | Scotland v Japan | Murrayfield |
| 2.10pm | England v New Zealand | Twickenham |
| 4.40pm | Ireland v South Africa | Aviva Stadium |
| 4.40pm | Italy v Fiji | Bluenergy Stadium, Udine |
| 8.10pm | France v Argentina | Stade de France |
| 8.10pm | Wales v Australia | Principality Stadium |
Our view: France are in the strongest spot. They are at home, they play last and a bonus-point win against Argentina would make every other result irrelevant. The southern place is a straight shoot-out with a one-point head start. Our call in the south is New Zealand. They took two points from a defeat in Cardiff, and their game finishes before the Springboks kick off in Dublin, so the pressure lands on South Africa.
Nations Championship Final: Quick Answers
Who plays in the Nations Championship final?
The team that finishes top of the Northern Hemisphere table plays the team that finishes top of the Southern Hemisphere table. No other team can reach the final.
When and where is the Nations Championship final?
Sunday 29 November 2026 at Twickenham (Allianz Stadium), kick-off 4.40pm GMT. The third-place match is on Saturday 28 November.
How is a tie on points decided?
By most wins, then points difference, then tries difference, then most tries, then a coin toss.
Can the Springboks still reach the final?
Yes. They need one more point than New Zealand in Round 6. A tie on points goes to South Africa, on wins or points difference, unless New Zealand find a 72-point swing.
Can Scotland still reach the Nations Championship final?
No. Scotland beat Australia 15–12 to move to 15 points, but the most they can finish on is 20, one short of France’s 21.
Sources: tables, results, fixtures, kick-off times, format and tie-break rules from the official Nations Championship site (format). Rassie Erasmus at the Springboks’ press conference in Paris, 13 November 2026 (video, 13:05). Dave Rennie at the All Blacks’ press conference in Cardiff, 14 November 2026 (video, 5:50).
Comments
No one has weighed in yet.
Be the first - what did you make of it?