Bryn Hall spent Friday night explaining why New Zealand are about to lose a series. Then a viewer asked him to settle the Rassie Erasmus greatest coach question, and he handed him the title.
He got there in stages. He ruled out Steve Hansen. He ruled out Graham Henry. And then, before he closed it, he named the one measurement that might have gone the other way.
“I don’t know off the top of my head right now, but the success rate, how many wins has he had over his tenure? That might be something where Steve Hansen or Graeme Henry ends up being in that conversation… But for me, man, I could easily say that he is.”
So somebody should look it up. Does the greatest-coach case survive contact with the win rates, or is this a South African trophy cabinet beating a New Zealand spreadsheet? Settle it in the comments.
That was on the Aotearoa Rugby Pod’s live stream on Friday, hours after both teams were named for Baltimore and with New Zealand one draw from losing a series they have outscored South Africa in.
Hall is a former Crusaders and Blues halfback, now at Kubota Spears and North Harbour. He named the exact number that would settle the argument, said out loud that he had not looked it up, and gave Erasmus the title anyway.
The number Hall reached for, and never checked
Hansen coached the All Blacks 107 times between 2012 and 2019. He won 93, drew four and lost ten. That is a win rate of 86.92 per cent, and no All Blacks coach has bettered it across more than 100 Tests.
Henry, immediately before him, went 88 wins from 103 Tests. 85.4 per cent.
Erasmus has now overseen 99 Springboks Tests since 2018, across his first spell as head coach, the Jacques Nienaber years when he was director of rugby, and his return. Seventy-three wins, one draw, twenty-five defeats. 73.7 per cent. Baltimore on Saturday is his hundredth.
| Coach | Team | Span | Tests | W | D | L | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Hansen | New Zealand | 2012–2019 | 107 | 93 | 4 | 10 | 86.92% |
| Graham Henry | New Zealand | 2004–2011 | 103 | 88 | 0 | 15 | 85.44% |
| Rassie Erasmus | South Africa | 2018– | 99 | 73 | 1 | 25 | 73.74% |
Erasmus figures: SA Rugby magazine, 10 September 2026, covering every Test he has overseen since 2018. Hansen and Henry: full career records as All Blacks head coach.
Thirteen points. On the metric Hall himself nominated, it is not close.
Two of the three claims do not hold
The case Hall built had three legs, and Ross Karl kicked one away on air.
“How’s he not the top? Like, if you think about it, if you do think about it, has he won… he’s won two British Irish Lion Series?”
One. The 2021 series, which South Africa took 2-1 and during which Erasmus was director of rugby, water carrier, and then the subject of a two-month misconduct ban for the video he made about the officiating. There is no second Lions series.
The second leg is softer than it sounds. Erasmus was head coach for the 2019 World Cup. He was not head coach for 2023. Nienaber was, with Erasmus upstairs as director of rugby.
One World Cup as head coach. One as the man who built the system that won it. That is the distinction a greatest-ever argument is supposed to pick at, and the stream skates over it.
The third leg is the only one that survives untouched. Karl put it plainly.
“He’s certainly in the conversation. Two World Cup wins in a row. He has to be in the conversation. He’s done a tremendous job of taking a rock bottom side to being in hell of a place. He’s definitely got to be in the top five, if not in the top two.”
That part is unarguable.
Read also: how he gets that out of players who have nothing left to prove — the management question underneath the record.
What a win rate cannot see
Here is where the spreadsheet starts lying.
Hansen inherited a World Cup-winning squad and a fixture list that included Namibia, Georgia, Japan, Italy and Tonga. Erasmus inherited a side that had won 44 per cent of its Tests under Allister Coetzee, had lost at home to Ireland and had lost to Italy for the first time in its history. Nobody hands a coach a 73 per cent career figure from that starting position by accident.
South Africa weighs the trophies differently: two World Cup titles, a Lions series, three Rugby Championships and 40 away wins.
Win rate pays you for beating Tier 2 sides eleven times a cycle. It pays you nothing for winning three knockout matches by a point. Only one of those gets a medal.
Which is why the individual awards keep going somewhere else while the medals keep arriving in Johannesburg.
Hall dismissed Hansen for one afternoon in Yokohama
Hall did not dismiss Hansen carelessly. He dismissed him for eighty minutes in October 2019.
“Maybe a Steve Hansen. If Hansen had won 2019, and you know he was out-thought in that semi-final against England, probably selected the wrong team.”
England won that semi-final 19-7. New Zealand went home with a bronze medal and Hansen went out with one World Cup as head coach, from two attempts, at the top of a career nobody in the job has matched over 100 Tests. A coach can be the most consistent winner the game has produced and still be the coach who lost the one that counted.
Erasmus has the knockout record. Hansen has the body of work. Nobody has both, which is why this argument never dies.
The condition Hall set himself
“If he goes this to the World Cup and wins another World Cup, yeah, it’s without a doubt he’d be the greatest coach of all time. Without a doubt. Easy.”
Three in a row would do it. No head coach in the professional era has won two, let alone three, and at that point the win rate stops being a counter-argument and becomes a footnote about scheduling. Australia 2027 is the examination, and until then the honest position is the one the Hansen or Erasmus argument this site ran in December landed on: a tie decided by what you think a coach is for.
What has changed since December is who is saying it. It is no longer a South African claim. It is two New Zealanders conceding it on a New Zealand podcast while their own team prepares for a Test it cannot win the series with. On the other side, Eben Etzebeth rates Saturday above the two World Cup finals he has won.
Read next: Erasmus ruled out playing for a draw before this tour reached Soweto — what he says he is chasing on Saturday, and why a 3-1 is the number that matters to him.
Your turn
Two ways to measure a coach, and they point at different men.
Count the Tests and Hansen wins by thirteen points. Nobody is near him.
Count the finals and it is not an argument. Two World Cups, a Lions series, and a New Zealand side that has outscored his and is still losing this one.
Which measurement is the real one? Pick a side below, and if it is Erasmus, say what he has to do in Australia that he has not already done.
Frequently asked
What is Rassie Erasmus’s win percentage as Springboks coach?
Across all 99 Tests he has overseen since 2018, as head coach and as director of rugby, South Africa have won 73, drawn one and lost 25, a win rate of 73.7 per cent, per SA Rugby magazine on 10 September 2026. Baltimore is his hundredth. Narrowed to his head-coach Tests only, the figure sat at 75.93 per cent through his first 54 in charge.
What was Steve Hansen’s win rate with the All Blacks?
107 Tests, 93 wins, four draws, ten defeats, 86.92 per cent, between 2012 and 2019. It is the best full-cycle record of any All Blacks head coach.
How many World Cups has Rassie Erasmus won as head coach?
One. He was head coach for the 2019 title. For 2023 he was director of rugby, with Jacques Nienaber as head coach.
How many Lions series has Rassie Erasmus won?
One, in 2021, as director of rugby. South Africa won it 2-1.
Who said Erasmus is the greatest coach of all time?
Bryn Hall, on the Aotearoa Rugby Pod live stream of 11 September 2026, answering a viewer question alongside host Ross Karl.
