“It just makes so much sense to end up on that other side of the draw.” Steve Devine, on The Breakdown.
Steve Devine started with the Wallabies. If they lose to the All Blacks in their Rugby World Cup 2027 pool game, the former All Blacks halfback said, “they end up on a pretty easy side of the draw.”
Then he turned to his own side, and hedged in the same breath. “I know the All Blacks will never want to lose a game of rugby,” he said.
Devine was on Sky Sport NZ’s The Breakdown with host Kirstie Stanway on Sunday 18 October. It was the evening after a 43-21 defeat in Sydney left the Wallabies 2-0 down in the Bledisloe. Former Wallabies captain Stirling Mortlock had just said the pool-game loser goes to “a better side of the draw”.
If you were Dave Rennie, would you want to win Pool A? Have your say in the comments.
“Do you want to win?” Devine asked a former Wallabies captain
The question went to Mortlock, on the video link. He played 80 Tests for Australia between 2000 and 2009.
Devine kept it short. “Stirling, very quickly, Rugby World Cup next year, pool play. Do you want to win?”
Mortlock answered with sevens.
“Mate, that’s going to be interesting. It’s almost like going back to the days where we used to play sevens and often we’d lose the first match in the sevens tournament because we wanted to get to the plate final because, you know, that was a little bit more fun.”
“This is almost going to feel like that, you know. But at the end of the day, when you’re playing a World Cup match, you can’t help. Everyone’s competitive. There’s no way they’re going to be throwing it.”
“But the reality is everyone knows that more than likely the loser of that match will go into a better side of the draw. So that’s going to be a really, really interesting match.”
The plate final was a joke, and Mortlock shut it down himself two sentences later. Nobody throws a World Cup match. But both camps can read a bracket.
Devine’s answer started with the Wallabies
Once Mortlock had signed off, Devine gave his own view. It began with the side in gold.
“Not based on the last two weeks. I’m not that confident for them. But in saying that, if they lose to the All Blacks in pool play, they end up on a pretty easy side of the draw.”
“I mean, it’s just… I know the All Blacks will never want to lose a game of rugby, but it just makes so much sense to end up on that other side of the draw.”
In the first part, “they” and “them” are the Wallabies. Devine has no confidence in them on current form, and he sees one consolation for Australia in losing to New Zealand.
Rugby World Cup 2027 Pool A: what the loser avoids
Pool A, drawn in Sydney last December, is New Zealand, Australia, Chile and Hong Kong China. New Zealand play Australia at Stadium Australia on Saturday 9 October 2027.
Both should beat Chile and Hong Kong China. So the Sydney game will more than likely settle first and second, as Mortlock said.
Follow each side of the Rugby World Cup 2027 bracket on seedings and Devine’s “pretty easy” starts to make sense.
- Win Pool A: a third-placed side in the round of 16. Then the Pool B winners’ side in the quarter-final, which on seedings is South Africa. Then, on seedings, France’s half in the semi-final.
- Finish second: the Pool E runners-up in the round of 16. Then the winner of the Pool F winners against the Pool B runners-up, on seedings England. Then Argentina or Ireland in the semi-final.
The runner-up avoids South Africa and France until the final, on seedings.
Steve Hansen has already argued that this quarter-final costs the fans a final between the two best sides. Devine is talking about the route, and whichever side loses in Sydney gets the better one.
Nobody can plan to finish second
Start with the catch in the bracket. The Pool B runners-up sit on the “easy” side. If South Africa slip to second in Pool B, the runner-up’s road runs straight into them.
Then there is the match itself. It is a home World Cup Test for Australia in front of a Sydney crowd. New Zealand have held the Bledisloe for 24 straight years. Neither dressing room is going to treat it as a seeding exercise.
Mortlock said so in the same answer that started the debate, and Devine hedged his own line the same way.
Anzac Day comes first
Before Rugby World Cup 2027 starts, the two sides meet again. The Bledisloe gets an Anzac Day Test at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on Sunday 25 April 2027. The Pool A match comes nearly six months later.
Watch the selections that day. A side resting players on Anzac Day is thinking about October. A side picking its best team wants the result.
The full episode of The Breakdown is on the All Blacks YouTube channel. The exchange starts at 36:40.
Your turn: win Pool A or take the easier road?
Win Pool A, and on seedings the reward is South Africa in a quarter-final. Finish second, and the Springboks and France stay away until the final.
If you were Dave Rennie, would you want to win Pool A? One word below.
Frequently asked
Who is in Pool A at Rugby World Cup 2027?
New Zealand, Australia, Chile and Hong Kong China. New Zealand play Australia at Stadium Australia in Sydney on Saturday 9 October 2027.
Who does the Pool A runner-up play at Rugby World Cup 2027?
The Pool E runners-up in the round of 16. On seedings, England in the quarter-final, then Argentina or Ireland in the semi-final.
When do the All Blacks and Wallabies next play each other?
In the Anzac Day Bledisloe Test at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on Sunday 25 April 2027. The World Cup pool match follows in October.
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