South Africa got into the New Zealand 22 eleven times at Ellis Park. They scored once.
Everything else about the evening was theirs. The scrum, the collisions, the aerial contest, the territory. None of it mattered.
Five moments turned an hour of Springboks dominance into a 33-16 defeat against the All Blacks.
1. Andre Esterhuizen arrives and scores — 14 minutes
The start was orderly enough. Cheslin Kolbe kicked South Africa ahead on five minutes, New Zealand replied through Will Jordan on nine, and then Kurt-Lee Arendse failed a head injury assessment.
Esterhuizen came on and scored almost immediately. Off a lineout won by Ruan Nortje the maul made ground before stalling, and after a robust carry from Pieter-Steph du Toit the ball came to Esterhuizen with the All Blacks flat at the line. He put his head down, bumped off two tacklers inside the 22 and dotted down.
Kolbe converted for a 10-5 lead. For the next forty-five minutes that looked like the shape of the evening.
2. Ox Nche puts Tyrel Lomax through the floor — 32 minutes
The scrum that told everyone how the rest of the night was going to go. Nche went through his opposite number, South Africa got the penalty, and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu kicked it into the corner.
By half-time the pack had made 133 post-contact metres to New Zealand’s 103 off sixteen fewer carries. Jasper Wiese was the best player on the field by a distance and the numbers behind that performance deserve their own examination.
The warning signs were already there, and they were all in the same two shirts. Feinberg-Mngomezulu over-ran passes three separate times. Damian Willemse’s cross-kick was long. Grant Williams was slow at the base.
The forwards were building platforms the backs could not use. Nobody thought it mattered yet.
READ ALSO: Springboks player ratings: Jasper Wiese a 9 in defeat, and two marks in the fours
3. Marx grounds it, and does not — 35 minutes
The maul motored through the New Zealand pack and Malcolm Marx was over the line. Jordie Barrett got himself into the contact, got a hand in, and the ball came loose as Marx tried to dot down. No try.
It didn’t feel decisive at the time. South Africa led 13-12, they were dominating everywhere, and there was every reason to think the next chance would come.
It never did. Three first-half entries into the New Zealand 22, nothing to show for any of them. A converted try there makes it 20-12 at the break and the All Blacks come out needing two scores against a scrum that was destroying them.
One more try in that first half and New Zealand break. That is how close it was.
4. Nche comes off, and the scrum stops paying — 46 to 56 minutes
Gerhard Steenekamp replaced Nche on 46 and the penalties kept coming: 46, 51, 53. Twice du Toit turned down the posts to scrum again.
Every armchair in South Africa was screaming take the three. The captain was doing the right thing. When you can feel an opposition front row folding, three points is worth less than a yellow card and eight minutes against seven forwards, and du Toit could feel it, because his tighthead was telling him so at every reset.
In between, South Africa gave the lead away for good. Kolbe kicked his third penalty on 47 for a 16-12 advantage, and a minute later Williams dallied at the base again. Fabian Holland charged the box kick down and gathered the bounce to score. Sixty seconds later, seven points, and the Springboks never led again.
Then New Zealand changed their own front row. Asafo Aumua came on around the 54th minute alongside George Bower and Fletcher Newell, and on 56 the All Blacks won a scrum penalty on their own line. South Africa never won another.
Steenekamp kept winning penalties after he arrived, and that is not the point. Nche was the man breaking Lomax. He was on the bench when the card South Africa had spent ten minutes hunting was finally within reach, and it never came.
Rassie Erasmus named this passage himself, putting it at 58 minutes with South Africa leading 19-16, and in his post-match press conference called it the moment the balance changed. Dave Rennie, asked separately, picked the same scrum.
READ ALSO: Erasmus refuses the ‘catastrophe’ label and names the scrum that lost Ellis Park
5. Willemse saves it, and it does not matter — 58 minutes
South Africa had one last chance to take the momentum back and they nearly took it.
Jordan beat five tacklers and released Damian McKenzie, who accelerated into the 22 with the line at his mercy. Willemse chased across and got a hand to the ball, forcing it dead. A genuine try-saver against a certain score.
Survive the five-metre scrum that followed and the Test is alive again. Ardie Savea picked from the base, dragged in two tacklers, and Luke Jacobson took the ball on the second phase and scored.
Ten points. Done.
Marco van Staden was sin-binned on 70, Cobus Reinach on 71, and South Africa finished with thirteen men while Jordan added the fifth.
Springboks vs All Blacks: what has to change for Cape Town
Erasmus will not change the pack and he should not. Nche, Wiese, Eben Etzebeth, du Toit and Paul de Villiers all delivered, and the scrum was the most dominant unit on the field for an hour.
The questions sit behind it. Kolbe took all four shots at goal rather than the fly-half, which is a selection signal hiding in plain sight. Williams was charged down for the try that cost the lead and was moved to the wing before the hour. Feinberg-Mngomezulu dropped a pass under no pressure on 67 with the backline finally in space.
There is also the Nche question, and Erasmus has six days to decide whether he trusts his best scrummager for longer next week or accepts that a four-Test series means managing minutes.
The takeaway: dominance is not points
Rennie put it more bluntly than any South African has. The Springboks, he said, are the best side in the world inside the opposition 22, averaging around five and a half points per entry. At Ellis Park they managed 0.9.
Eleven visits, one try. Marx’s knock-on over the line. Feinberg-Mngomezulu’s dropped pass on 67 with the backline finally in space. Three first-half entries for nothing.
There is one more detail worth sitting with: Kolbe took all four shots at goal, not the fly-half. That is a selection signal hiding in plain sight.
If Williams and Feinberg-Mngomezulu start again in Cape Town, South Africa will win the scrum again and lose the series. The forwards did their job at Ellis Park. Somebody has to decide who is trusted to use it.
The second Test is at DHL Stadium on Saturday 29 August. South Africa now need three wins in a row.
READ ALSO: All Blacks vs Springboks: the 5 moments that won itThe scrum that told everyone how the rest of the night was going to go. Nche went through his opposite number, South Africa got the penalty, and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu kicked it into the corner.
