Rassie Erasmus has changed his mind about his front row, and he has said exactly why. Four changes and one positional switch to the side that beat New Zealand 33-26 in Cape Town, and the pack that starts the third Test of the Castle Lager Double Malt Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry at FNB Stadium on Saturday is the one he originally named seven days ago, before the weather got a vote.
Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx and Wilco Louw come back into the starting front row. Gerhard Steenekamp, Deon Fourie and Thomas du Toit drop to the bench. Cheslin Kolbe moves to fullback because Damian Willemse is injured, and Kurt-Lee Arendse comes onto the wing.
That is the whole team sheet in three sentences. The reasoning underneath it is more interesting.
It also raises the only question worth asking before Saturday. Erasmus named a team last week and had changed it before the players reached the ground. So how many more changes does he make between now and kick-off in Soweto? Nought, one, four again? Put a number on it in the comments and see who is closest by 17h10.
The front row goes back to plan A
Erasmus named Nche, Marx and Louw to start in Cape Town, then swapped them out before kick-off. He has now swapped them back.
“We decided to change our front rows last week due to the weather conditions, and Johannesburg weather is different to Cape Town, so we thought this would be the best decision for us this weekend,” Erasmus said.
Soweto sits close to 1,700 metres above sea level and the ball flies differently up there. Dry air, hard ground, quicker ruck ball, more running rugby whether either coach wants it or not. A front row picked for a wet, heavy Cape Town evening is not the front row you want for that.
Starting Nche and Louw is a scrum-first decision, and it front-loads the contest rather than saving it. The first two scrums of the match will tell you whether it worked, and the thing to watch is not the initial hit. It is the second drive, the deliberate re-shove once the engagement has settled and the referee has stopped looking for an early penalty. That is where Nche does his damage, and it is where All Blacks tightheads have historically been made to look ordinary.
Erasmus is not short of cover if it goes wrong.
“Gerhard, Thomas, and Deon have played massive games for us, and at the same time know how to deal with pressure, and that is exactly what we need against a never-say-die team like the All Blacks, who play for the full 80 minutes,” he said.
Seventy Test caps sitting in the 16, 17 and 18 shirts is a luxury almost nobody else in world rugby has.
Willemse’s knock forces the one real gamble
The positional switch is the selection Erasmus would rather not have made. Willemse took a knock in the first half in Cape Town and is unavailable. Handre Pollard is out too. So Kolbe goes to 15.
“Unfortunately, Damian Willemse took a knock in the first half and was not available for selection this weekend, and neither was Handre Pollard, and by sticking to these combinations and making one switch with Cheslin at fullback, we thought it would be the best for this match,” Erasmus said.
Kolbe at fullback is not new and it is not a disaster. It is, however, an invitation, and New Zealand’s kicking group will have spotted it before the team sheet had finished loading. Expect contestable kicks aimed at the 15-metre channel rather than straight down his throat, and expect a chase line built to arrive at the same moment the ball does.
The counter-argument is the obvious one. Kolbe is the most dangerous broken-field runner on the park, and every kick that does not force a knock-on hands him a start. Kick badly to him and he is gone.
Arendse comes back with a strike rate that reads like a typo
Arendse was unlucky to miss out in Cape Town once Kolbe cleared a niggle. He returns with numbers that need reading twice.
“Kurt-Lee was unlucky not to play last week after Cheslin recovered from his niggle, so we are pleased to see him back. He is a quality player and his 25 tries in 33 matches so far shows the type of player he is,” Erasmus said.
Twenty-five tries in 33 Tests. At the level he plays at, against the opposition he plays, that is not a good return. It is an absurd one.
No Pollard, no Willemse, and the kicking game lands on two men
Here is the detail that gets less attention than the front row and may matter more. With Pollard and Willemse both out, every kicking decision in the match-23 belongs to Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Manie Libbok, with Kolbe and Cobus Reinach covering exits.
That is a different Springbok side to the one most opposition analysts prepare for. Less territory-first, more willing to play from deep, and considerably less predictable off the tee under pressure at altitude. Whether that reads as an upgrade or a risk depends entirely on the scoreboard at 65 minutes.
The bench splits 5-3, with Andre Esterhuizen, Morne van den Berg and Libbok the only backs. Cameron Hanekom, four caps in, is the loose forward cover.
Win on Saturday and the series is effectively decided
The series is level at 1-1 with two Tests left, the last of them in the United States next weekend. Erasmus has done the maths out loud.
“This game is going to be equally, if not more intense than the last two given the fact that the team that wins this match will be two games up in the series, which will make the clash in the USA the decider or game that could see the series finish in a draw, so there will be a different vibe around this match,” he said.
He also knows what a loss does to this particular opponent, because his own team lived it three weeks ago in Johannesburg.
“We know how it felt after the first match in Johannesburg, and such a result really galvanises a team, so we have no doubt that they will go full-out to win this Test match before the series finale in the USA next week. They are one of the two best teams in the world and based on experience, they never give up, as we saw last weekend, so this will undoubtedly be another epic encounter between the sides.”
FNB Stadium has never been kind to the Boks
South Africa have played New Zealand twice at FNB Stadium. They lost both. 29-22 in 2010, 32-16 in 2012.
Nobody in the current squad was involved in either, which is rather the point Erasmus is making about the venue.
“We are excited that we will be playing at the FNB stadium, where on a good day there is an 80 000 strong crowd, and that will be a new and exciting experience for our players because most of these players have never ran onto the field there, and the support we enjoy there will add to the occasion,” he said.
The noise is a tactical problem, not just an atmosphere
Erasmus said the quiet part out loud, and it deserves more than a nod.
“With the vuvuzelas and passionate crowd there, we can hardly hear one another on the field, so we are all thrilled about this occasion.”
A stadium that loud does real damage to a game plan. Lineout calls stop travelling. Defensive line calls stop travelling. The scrumhalf’s instruction to the back three at an exit stops travelling. Teams that cope in that environment are the ones whose shape is drilled deep enough that nobody needs telling, and the teams that fall apart are the ones whose system depends on a voice arriving on time.
Watch the lineout. If South Africa go short and simple early, that is the crowd, not the coach losing his nerve.
Three records go on Saturday
- Eben Etzebeth extends his own record to 145 Test caps, more than any Springbok in history.
- Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Jasper Wiese make their 17th Test start together, passing the mark they share with Francois Louw, Willem Alberts and Duane Vermeulen. Erasmus started 14 alongside Andre Venter and Gary Teichmann.
- Deon Fourie, at 39, stretches his record as the oldest Springbok to play a Test by another week.
Wiese needs two more caps after this one to reach 50. The starting XV carries 958 Test caps between them, 592 of those in the forwards.
Springbok team to face the All Blacks at FNB Stadium
15 Cheslin Kolbe (DHL Stormers)
14 Kurt-Lee Arendse (Mitsubishi Dynaboars)
13 Jesse Kriel (Canon Eagles)
12 Damian de Allende (Wild Knights)
11 Ethan Hooker (Hollywoodbets Sharks)
10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu (DHL Stormers)
9 Cobus Reinach (DHL Stormers)
8 Jasper Wiese (Urayasu D-Rocks)
7 Pieter-Steph du Toit (Toyota Verblitz)
6 Siya Kolisi (captain, DHL Stormers)
5 Ruan Nortje (Kubota Spears)
4 Eben Etzebeth (Hollywoodbets Sharks)
3 Wilco Louw (DHL Stormers)
2 Malcolm Marx (Kubota Spears)
1 Ox Nche (Hollywoodbets Sharks)
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Morne van den Berg, 23 Manie Libbok.
Kick-off: 17h10, live on SuperSport.
The head-to-head, and why the trend matters more than the record
New Zealand still own this fixture on paper. 112 Tests, 64 All Blacks wins, 44 for South Africa, four draws, a 39.2% win rate for the Boks.
The recent record says something different. South Africa have won six of the last eight meetings going back to August 2023. This is no longer a rivalry where one side is chasing.
What to watch on Saturday
Three things, in the order they will happen.
The first scrum. Not the hit, the second shove. If Nche gets his second drive away before the referee’s arm moves, South Africa have won the selection argument inside 90 seconds.
The first contestable kick at Kolbe. Where it lands tells you exactly how New Zealand intend to attack the back three all evening.
The lineout at the first defensive set piece inside the Bok 22. With that crowd, in that stadium, a clean call and a clean take is worth more than it looks.
Erasmus has picked continuity and trusted the pack he wanted in the first place. New Zealand arrive knowing a loss ends the series as a contest. Two of them get what they want on Saturday, and neither will be quiet about it.
