“We’re going to dissect scrums to within an inch of our life, and we’re never going to actually find a way to be better than them, because at the moment they’re just better.”
That is Justin Marshall, 81 caps for the All Blacks, speaking from South Africa four days before Baltimore. His plan for the Springboks scrum is to stop trying: concede up to five scrum penalties and win the other eighty minutes somewhere else. Twenty minutes earlier on the same show, the All Blacks loosehead had been asked the same question and said the opposite. Which of them is right? Comments are open.
Andy Rowe asked it at fifteen minutes and again at thirty-six, of two different men, after the 29-24 defeat in Soweto that put South Africa 2-1 up. The answers were opposites.
Nobody on The Good, The Bad & Rugby ANZ pointed this out, because of how the episode was built. Tamaiti Williams was in the studio early. Justin Marshall came down the line from South Africa later, after Williams had gone. Neither heard the other. So nobody is picking a fight here. Two men were asked the same thing and would send the coach in opposite directions.
Start with the man who would be wearing the jersey.
Tamaiti Williams wants to walk towards it
Williams is the All Blacks loosehead and has not played since round three of Super Rugby Pacific. Asked how New Zealand close the gap, he did not reach for the referee, the law book or the word legal.
“Personally I love it. You got to walk towards that. Meet fire with fire, right? And there has been times we’ve got it right in the series and it’s paid off for us, game one. So I think we just got to meet fire with fire. Keep putting in the work. Don’t make excuses, because there’s no better challenge.”
Front-rowers talk like this. A scrum is the only contest in the sport where a man is asked, eight or ten times an afternoon, whether he is stronger than the man opposite, and the honest ones do not want that question changed. Williams also has the first Test on his side. New Zealand did get it right at Ellis Park, and they won by 17.
Read also: Kieran Read has already said the Springboks scrum is legal, which removes the comforting explanation and leaves only the uncomfortable one.
Justin Marshall has stopped pretending about the All Blacks scrum
Twenty minutes later, from the other side of the world, Justin Marshall answered the same question by refusing the premise.
He won 81 caps at scrum-half and was in the side that won a series in South Africa in 1996, the only New Zealand team ever to do it. He has spent this tour on the ground, and his read is that the scrum is not a problem to be solved in four days.
“My mindset is we can’t fight fire with fire there right now. Perhaps if Tamaiti Williams is available and some others, we might be in a better situation, but simply they are not.”
Read that back. The specialist Marshall says would change the equation is the man who, on the same episode, said the equation should be met head-on. Neither knows the other said it.
The number Justin Marshall is willing to live with
Marshall put a figure on it.
“We’ve got to accept that we might concede one, two, three, even four, maybe worst case scenario five scrum penalties in the game. That is what it is, and it’s not ideal. But yet we will [make] five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10 line breaks with our attack and defensively put them in the hurt locker.”
Five scrum penalties. In a Test decided by five points last time out. Against a side that has converted set-piece pressure into points all series, including a penalty try in Soweto that required no line break at all.
Justin Marshall’s justification is the rest of the field.
“We literally had them hands on hips yesterday, and we’ve had them hands on hips throughout all three Test matches. I’m looking from across my monitor at the full field, and when we’ve been at them for 10 phases or so, they are absolutely knackered.”
New Zealand have scored thirteen tries in this series to South Africa’s eight and lead every attacking measure that matters. They are also 2-1 down, which is the entire problem with the plan and Marshall knows it.
The thing he refuses to do
Then he named the alternative and killed it.
“So it’s like, do we then go, ‘oh, but we lost the scrums and the territory and we need to kick more and blah blah blah’? [Expletive] no. We don’t want to go that way. That’s taken us back to where we’ve been.”
It is a shot at four years of New Zealand rugby, fired by a man who says himself he has been “super critical” of the way the All Blacks have played across that stretch. His evidence for the new version is a single moment from Soweto: Cam Roigard taking a quick tap ten metres from his own line while the game was strangling them.
The counter-argument is straightforward, and Nick Mallett took an All Blacks prop through the lesson on live television last week. You do not get to choose how much scrum a Test contains. South Africa choose that.
If the penalty count runs to five, the ball spends the afternoon in New Zealand’s half and the tempo Justin Marshall is banking on never arrives. Tempo requires possession in the right part of the field, and the scrum is how South Africa take both.
A front row has to believe it can win the scrum or it cannot pack down at all. A coaching staff with four days left has to decide whether that belief is worth the penalty count.
Where this leaves Dave Rennie
Both positions have already shown up in the All Blacks camp this week. Dave Rennie went to World Rugby about what its referees are missing, which is the fight version. The Justin Marshall version says the fight is unwinnable inside four days and the energy belongs elsewhere.
Marshall does not think Rennie is coaching for Saturday at all.
“I think he’s just methodically making his way through: how do we look when it comes to this time next year? And this time next year is Rugby World Cup.”
If that is right, Baltimore is a data point, not a destination. Both camps called this series for Baltimore weeks ago, and both did it for the wrong reasons. If it is wrong, New Zealand lose a series to South Africa and spend a year answering for it.
Frequently asked
What did Justin Marshall say about the All Blacks scrum?
That New Zealand will not find a way to be better than the Springboks scrum because South Africa are simply better at it, that the All Blacks should not fight fire with fire, and that they should accept conceding up to five scrum penalties in Baltimore and win through tempo and line breaks instead.
Did Tamaiti Williams disagree with Justin Marshall?
Not directly. They appeared on the same episode but never spoke to each other. Williams recorded his answer earlier in the show and had left before Marshall came on the line from South Africa, and Marshall was never asked to respond to him.
How many tries have the All Blacks scored in this series?
Thirteen, to South Africa’s eight, across the first three Tests. New Zealand still trail the series 2-1 because South Africa have converted set-piece pressure and goal kicks more efficiently.
Where is the fourth Test being played?
At M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Saturday 12 September, a neutral venue. South Africa lead 2-1 and cannot lose the series; New Zealand can only draw it.
Your turn
Two ways to play Baltimore, and both come from an All Black. Walk towards it, contest every scrum and accept the risk, which is Tamaiti Williams. Or concede the scrum battle in advance, bank up to five penalties, and out-run them for eighty minutes, which is Justin Marshall. One of those is a plan and one of those is a hope. Which is which?
