The head coach would not say it in Baltimore. A 31-cap Springboks centre said it on SuperSport three days later, and brought the numbers.
“It could have been 4-0 and I’m not saying that in an arrogant way at all.”
Robbie Fleck, 31 Tests in the Springboks midfield between 1999 and 2002, said it on SuperSport’s series review show on Tuesday 15 September, three days after Rassie Erasmus had sat in Baltimore with the trophy in the room and would not call the Springboks the better team.
The Springboks All Blacks series finished 3-1. Erasmus’s version of it: “I wouldn’t say we were the better team [today]. At 60 minutes the game was still in the balance. We appreciate that we won but the margin between us and New Zealand is very small.”
Fleck watched the same four Tests of the Springboks All Blacks series and reached for a different number. So who is right, the coach who says the margin is small or the centre who says it could have been a whitewash? Say so in the comments, then read his case.
“The stats will suggest otherwise”
Fleck’s starting point is that Baltimore was never close, whatever the sheet said.
“For me, Jean, there was really one dominant team in that game. From watching it… I’ve never seen it so obvious. You know, the stats will suggest otherwise.”
He is right that the stats disagree with him. Dave Rennie looked at the same match and called it “a very even game tonight by the score”, and RugbyPass had the carries at 137 to 142 and the turnovers at eight each. It was 29-21 with 15 minutes left. Then 14 points in six minutes, both from New Zealand ball.
Fleck’s answer is two columns the sheet buries. This site’s match records have metres after contact at 523 to 369 in Baltimore, from five more carries. The other column is his.
“From the first game, I think our ruck speed was 58% under 3 seconds, and it landed up in this test at 67, and we were quicker than the All Blacks, for the first time in the series.”
Those are his figures, quoted as he gave them. The 154 extra metres after contact are on the record. A team making that much more ground from the same number of carries is winning a collision the possession count cannot see.
Ellis Park is the whole argument
Four-nil needs Ellis Park, and Ellis Park was 33-16 to New Zealand with five tries to one. Fleck’s case for it is that South Africa gave it away.
“If we take that first test into consideration, I think we had nearly double the amount of turnovers against them. We had those two yellow cards and there were key moments in that game that went against us.”
South Africa dominated Ellis Park and lost by 17 in the site’s own reading of it, and the series review argued that one scrum penalty decided the only Test South Africa lost.
Rito Hlungwani, the Stormers forwards coach sitting beside Fleck, put a scoreline on that scrum.
“For me, especially test one, it’s almost like the curse of having a more superior set piece. You know, you scrum penalty in front of the poles. What was it, 19-16? Do you take the three points and regroup again? But no, maybe scrum again… Instead, turnover scrum. Then that scrum really changed the game.”
The honest problem with 4-0 is that five tries to one is not a coin toss, and New Zealand outscored South Africa across the first three Tests. Fleck’s reply to that is where the five came from.
In his words, the old pattern against New Zealand was “we’ve had a few phases and we turn over the ball, two passes, gone, they score.” That is a description of turnover attack, and South Africa fed it all afternoon at Ellis Park. Fix the feed, and the tries go with it. The next three Saturdays are his evidence that they did.
One side learned. Fleck says the other went back to its DNA
This is the part of his argument New Zealand supporters will like least, because he is complimentary about it.
“They’ve gone, this is how we’re going to play. We’re going back to our DNA, this is our legacy, and that’s commendable and it’s awesome… It’s part of who they are, but they didn’t change tactically. They didn’t learn from the first game, or the first Stormers game for that matter, where we have learned.”
The try count by Test backs the first half of that sentence. South Africa scored one at Ellis Park, three in Cape Town, four at FNB Stadium and six in Baltimore. New Zealand scored five, then four, four and four.
His example of the thing that never changed is the kick return.
“New Zealand adopted this sort of tactic of their wingers running back and then McKenzie waiting and then either cleaning or staying as an option. It just didn’t work… Why do you stick with that throughout the series?”
And the summary he gave at the top of the show, before any clip had been played: “They didn’t have a plan B and for me that was the key thing, where South Africa from test one, I think they learned from their mistakes that they made in that first test and they were the one side that was growing throughout the series.”
The 32-phase try New Zealand scored and never tried again
The strangest piece of Fleck’s evidence is a New Zealand try. Will Jordan scored on 38 minutes in Baltimore at the end of 32 phases, and it put the All Blacks 17-14 up at the break.
“When I saw this try I felt, okay, there’s something here… This could be a blueprint. Look, it looks like hard work, but they didn’t go wide too early, you know, they kept building the phases… I would have thought that after this try, the mindset or the message would be, well, let’s do that again. Instead of trying to go too wide, too early… They just didn’t do it enough.”
That is a former Stormers head coach, the man who made Siya Kolisi the Stormers captain after one speech, telling the All Blacks what their own best try was for. Thirty-two phases into a Springboks defence, no width until the numbers were there, and a score. Then nothing like it for the rest of the night.
Where this site lands on the Springboks All Blacks series
Erasmus and Fleck are describing two different margins.
The coach’s margin is the scoreboard with 20 minutes to go. On that measure he is right three times out of four. Cape Town was 33-26, FNB Stadium was 29-24, and Baltimore was a converted try with a quarter of an hour left.
Fleck’s margin is the collision. On that measure the Springboks All Blacks series was one-sided from Cape Town onwards, and his 4-0 is a claim about Ellis Park being a Test South Africa lost rather than one New Zealand won. The site’s own coverage said the same thing the night it happened.
So take the second reading, because it is the one that predicts the next Test. A small margin on the clock produced by a large margin in contact does not stay small. Baltimore was the proof: 14 points in six minutes, both from New Zealand ball, after 70 minutes of losing the collision.
Fleck closed the show with the sentence the whole argument fits inside.
“One team grew. The other one stayed the same.”
Your turn
Two ways to read a 3-1 series. Either the margin was small and South Africa won the moments, which is what the coach who won it says. Or one side got better every Saturday and the other did not, which is what a 31-cap centre says with the tape in front of him.
One of those is modesty. Which one?
Frequently asked
Who won the Springboks All Blacks series in 2026?
South Africa won Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry 3-1. New Zealand won the first Test 33-16 at Ellis Park; South Africa won 33-26 in Cape Town, 29-24 at FNB Stadium and 43-28 in Baltimore.
What did Rassie Erasmus say about being the better team?
After the Baltimore Test he said: “I wouldn’t say we were the better team [today]. At 60 minutes the game was still in the balance. We appreciate that we won but the margin between us and New Zealand is very small.”
Who is Robbie Fleck?
A former Springboks centre with 31 Tests between 1999 and 2002, later the Stormers head coach who made Siya Kolisi captain, and now a SuperSport panellist and UCT coach.
