Asafo Aumua came off the bench in the 54th minute at Ellis Park on Saturday. Two minutes later, New Zealand won their first scrum penalty of the match, on their own line, against a South Africa pack that had been dismantling them for an hour. They went on to win the first Test of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry 33-16.
A week ago, on this site, Israel Dagg told us that was going to happen.
The call, and the two minutes that settled it
Asked on the Kick Offs & Kick Ons podcast to name the All Blacks forward who most needed to fire across the four Tests, Dagg reached for Ardie Savea, decided that was the answer everyone would give, and picked a 29-year-old hooker who had not played a Test in 2025 instead. “He’s a beast,” Dagg said, and predicted the series 3-1 to New Zealand.
We published that on 15 August. It read like a stretch at the time. Here is the piece in full.
Seven days later, in the 56th minute at Ellis Park, it stopped reading like a stretch.
What the scoreboard was hiding
To understand the size of that swing you have to remember the previous hour.
Ox Nche had put Tyrel Lomax through the floor on 32. New Zealand conceded a scrum penalty on their own feed on 25, another on 46, and three in a row between the 51st and 55th minutes. South Africa were so far on top that they kept refusing shots at goal to scrum again, hunting a yellow card for the New Zealand front row rather than three points. Ellis Park was chanting for scrums.
Aumua replaced Codie Taylor on 54. On 56 New Zealand packed down five metres from their own line, in exactly the situation that had been breaking them all evening, and won the penalty. South Africa did not win another scrum penalty of consequence.
Within four minutes Will Jordan had beaten five tacklers and put Damian McKenzie through, and Luke Jacobson had scored off the resulting scrum. Within twenty, the Springboks were down to 13 men and the Test was gone.
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He was not alone, and it still turned on him
The honest version: Aumua did not fix a scrum by himself. George Bower had come on at 37 when Ethan de Groot failed a head injury assessment, Fletcher Newell followed at tighthead, and by the hour New Zealand had an entirely different front row to the one that started.
A hooker’s job in a scrum under that kind of pressure is narrow and unglamorous. Strike clean, hold the bind, keep the two props square so the pressure has somewhere to go. Nche’s whole evening had been about splitting Lomax off from the man beside him. From the 56th minute, that stopped happening.
Whether the credit belongs to the hooker or the unit, the timing is not in dispute. Sixteen scrums into a Test they were losing at the set piece, New Zealand changed their No 2 and the set piece stopped losing.
Why the pick was bold in the first place
Aumua did not wear the black jersey once in 2025. Ankle, hamstring, knee, elbow and three head knocks across the year, seven Super Rugby starts, 422 minutes, one try. Brodie McAlister and George Bell moved past him. He ended his season early during the NPC with concussion symptoms, and told The Post in January that he had at times been forcing a smile through it.
He arrived on this tour with 22 Test caps. Taylor has 109 and captained the side against the Bulls at Loftus Versfeld this month, at 35. Samisoni Taukei’aho has 44. Bell, at 24, is the coming man. Aumua was fourth in a queue of four.
That is the context Dagg was picking against, and it is covered in full here.
What it changes for the rest of the series
Three Tests remain and Rassie Erasmus will target the New Zealand scrum in every one of them. The question is now whether he can do to the replacement front row what Nche did to the starters.
Dave Rennie has the more interesting problem. Taylor is one of the most decorated hookers in the game and started on merit. But New Zealand’s scrum functioned better in the last 26 minutes than in the first 54, and the crowd, the referee and the scoreboard all agree on when that changed.
Nobody will put Aumua on the front of Sunday’s papers. Jordan took man of the match with two tries, Fabian Holland had the charge-down, Savea had both late assists. All deserved.
But the Test turned on a hooker who spent last year being told to stop. Dagg said 3-1. New Zealand are 1-0 up.
