Kieran Read spent Sunday morning explaining how New Zealand lost 3-1, then told Jeremy Paul on The Good, The Bad & Rugby ANZ that Australia are matched up better against the Springboks than the All Blacks were. Paul was dared to call Wallabies vs Springboks in Perth, and did.
Andy Rowe would not accept “good chance”.
Jeremy Paul, 72 Tests at hooker for Australia and a World Cup winner in 1999, had got as far as “If we can beat South Africa in Perth, which I think we’re a good chance”. Then the host of The Good, The Bad & Rugby ANZ cut across him. Don’t say good chance, Rowe told him. Say you will.
“No, we will. No, no, no. I believe in this. No, I seriously believe in this team, because we’re getting a good set piece… that variation within the 22, because, mate, if you go down there and you don’t score, mate, what happened to the Springboks in that first Test, mate? They didn’t score three, four occasions. They didn’t score, they lose the game. Every time you go into a red zone, mate, you have to score.”
That was Sunday 13 September, the morning after South Africa beat New Zealand 43-28 in Baltimore to take Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry 3-1. Wallabies vs Springboks at Optus Stadium is on Sunday 27 September.
And Paul had a bigger name in the room than his own. Kieran Read, 127 Tests and the All Blacks captain from 2016 to 2019, had spent forty minutes on why his side lost. Then he said this: “You’re matched up probably better against the Springboks than us, to be honest, right now.”
His reason is the case against his own team, and it is below. The comments are open. Are the Wallabies really a better match for the Springboks than New Zealand were, or is Read being kind to a guest?
Three wins, a draw, and three of them away
Les Kiss has not lost a Test as Wallabies coach. Japan were beaten 35-32 in Osaka and 56-17 in Townsville, Argentina 27-21 in Jujuy, and the 28-28 draw in Mendoza made this the first Australian side to leave Argentina unbeaten. Drew Mitchell said that tour did not count as a series, and he had a point about the format. He did not have one about the results.
Paul’s summary was “undefeated, three wins and a draw… three out of four of those were away”, and then he built the case in three parts. Set piece first.
Par, not stronger
“First of all, set piece. I think Taniela Tupou is our strongest scrum. We’ve actually now starting to build three deep, like we got young Massimo coming in now in terms of off the bench. He’s only 22.”
Read heard a claim and tested it. “So you got a stronger set piece. Look, I look forward to that.”
“I’m not saying we got a strong… we don’t have to have stronger. We just got to get par, mate. Like this is the problem. Like everyone thinks you’ve got to be stronger. You just need par, mate. You don’t need to dominate.”
South Africa did not win four Tests by shoving New Zealand off the ball. One scrum penalty decided the only Test South Africa lost, and it went against them. What the Springboks scrum did was hold, every time, so that the penalties came from everywhere else. Par is the right target.
Tupou scored twice in Townsville. Massimo de Lutiis is 22 and was Wallaby 1000 with a try on debut against Japan. Whether three deep holds against a Springboks bench that changed both props on 44 minutes in Baltimore is the first question of the night.
None of this pick and go
The second part is the 22, and Paul was specific about what has changed.
“The biggest difference I’ve seen in terms of deception as well as variation has been our attack in the 22. So none of this… pick and go, pick and go, pick and go. So in that first game we saw Carter Gordon come down the blind, bang, he scored. We saw Fraser McReight as well, like, coming around the corner… remember that old pass where you used to pass to the first runner and then the halfback, like they turn to the defence and then pop it back… it’s a very good ball. I’ve seen the Wallabies do that a couple of times now on the goal line.”
Gordon’s try on 11 in Jujuy came from taking on two defenders on the short side, and McReight’s on 20 was from close range. The pop-back Paul describes is the ball played to a first runner who turns and hands it to the halfback wrapping behind him, a “Johnny Sexton kind of ball” in Read’s phrase. The defender who stepped up to take the runner is now facing the wrong way.
Paul’s claim that Australia score at “a very high percentage” of red-zone entries came with no number, and none is offered here. The standard is on the record, though. South Africa came away from the New Zealand 22 with nothing at Ellis Park, “three, four occasions” on Paul’s count, and lost. After that, in Read’s words, “as soon as they got into our 22 for the rest of the series they scored tries”.
Read also: Ewen McKenzie counted five of the eight tour tries to forwards, which is the version of this attack Paul is arguing has already gone.
The ten minutes that haunt them
Paul supplied his own caveat, and it is Mendoza.
Two Pumas backs were binned inside a minute and the second offence was a penalty try. Lucio Cinti knocked down a pass on 69 and Santiago Carreras did the same on 70. Australia still only drew.
“These are the 10 minutes they should have put two to three tries on… They should have won that game. So I think a bit of the past is haunting them there… and I feel they’re going to haunt them against the Springboks.”
Then there is the question of which Springboks turn up. Rassie Erasmus, naming his Baltimore side, said of Handré Pollard: “Handre is almost ready. We could have selected Handre as well, and he’ll probably play against Australia.” Pollard has not played a minute of the series. Paul’s reading was blunt.
“It’s going to be against the fourth-ranked Springboks team. Who knows, right? Who knows who they’re going to bring… it is the perfect time to play. If you’re ever going to play them, come off four Tests against the All Blacks… It’s actually not even the physical side in terms of recovering from injuries. It’s the emotional turmoil. Emotional damage would have absolutely taken out of both teams, mate.”
Wallabies vs Springboks: why Read thinks Australia match up better
The full answer, and it came from the losing side.
“You’re matched up probably better against the Springboks than us, to be honest, right now, because what the All Blacks will do… we’ll play the similar game and I think our game will just be slightly above you… because you can’t beat us with physicality, whereas against the Springboks you can hold them out, you can match it, and then they’ll just, you know, roll and roll and roll when they get their opportunities. All Blacks, if it’s a matched physical battle, it is skill on skill.”
Against New Zealand, a physical stalemate turns into a passing contest, and Read does not think Australia win that. Against South Africa, the physical stalemate is the whole game, because the Springboks do not need to win the collision. They need you to lose it once.
New Zealand scored 17 tries to 14 across the four Tests and lost the series by ten points. South Africa kicked nine penalty goals to none and scored from every 22 entry after the first night. Hold them out, keep the count down, and they have to find tries the hard way.
Paul put it another way.
“It’s like the old Sylvester Stallone, right, Rocky Balboa… it’s not how hard you hit, it’s how hard you get hit and get back up, right?… It’s about being bashed and being able to continue getting bashed but still play at that high level and take opportunity. And you didn’t do that in game two.”
Read agreed with all of it except the part Paul had not said. “I agree with that. I just don’t agree with you saying your set piece is going to monster the Springboks.” Paul: “I never said that.”
The call
Paul is right about par and about the 22. Mendoza is the better guide than Jujuy, and he knows it. A Springboks side with Pollard back and half the Baltimore pack rested still kicks its goals and still defends its line. It still needs Australia to give it one collision.
Wallabies vs Springboks in Perth is Australia’s best chance at South Africa since Ellis Park a year ago, and the fixture list for the rest of the year gets harder from here.
Read next: Rassie Erasmus would not call the Springboks the better team in Baltimore, and what he said about who they play for is the mood Australia will meet at Optus Stadium.
Frequently asked
When is Wallabies vs Springboks in Perth?
Sunday 27 September at Optus Stadium, for the Mandela Challenge Plate. It is South Africa’s first Test since winning Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry 3-1 and Australia’s first since the 28-28 draw in Mendoza.
What did Kieran Read say about the Wallabies against the Springboks?
That Australia are “matched up probably better against the Springboks than us”, because South Africa can be held out and matched, whereas a physical stalemate against New Zealand becomes “skill on skill”.
What is Les Kiss’s record as Wallabies coach?
Four Tests, unbeaten: 35-32 and 56-17 against Japan, 27-21 against Argentina in Jujuy, and 28-28 in Mendoza.
Your turn: on the record
South Africa by seven, and the margin is the tee. Screenshot it. If Paul is right and Australia score every time they get into the 22, the comments are open on Sunday night.
