Jeremy Paul has picked the Wallabies to win at Eden Park, 36-34, and he talked himself into it on air. “I believe we could not have had a better preparation going into this even though it’s at Eden Park,” he said. “God damn it.”
Australia have not won there since 1986. The All Blacks have beaten them at the ground 24 times in a row, a run that covers all 72 of Paul’s Tests at hooker.
He said it on The Good, The Bad & Rugby ANZ on Monday 5 October, eight days after the Wallabies beat the Springboks 42-38 in Perth. Kieran Read, Justin Marshall and host Andy Rowe all went the other way, each by 17 points.
Best chance in 40 years, or the same story with a better warm-up?
Paul called Perth before it happened
Paul explained why he had tipped Australia in Perth in the first place.
“That was actually one of the main reasons I was backing the Wallabies. It wasn’t just pot luck or just backing my team.”
“It’s the preparation right in the lead-up going into that game, just that game. The Boks came off four hard Test matches and used a lot of players. So in terms of getting them at the right time, yes.”
South Africa arrived in Perth 15 days after Baltimore, with 13 changes from the side that won in Baltimore.
Then he turned the same logic on New Zealand.
“You guys haven’t played for a while… I believe we could not have had a better preparation going into this even though it’s at Eden Park. God damn it.”
The All Blacks have not played since 12 September. They lost three Tests in a row to finish the Rivalry series. The squad named for the Bledisloe is missing Ardie Savea, Ruben Love, Luke Jacobson and five others to injury.
Four weeks off heals bodies. Read, sitting next to Paul, said the All Blacks still don’t know their best XV. On Thursday Dave Rennie picked Damian McKenzie at 10, with Richie Mo’unga out injured.
Read also: Kieran Read explained why Australia match up better with the Springboks than New Zealand did.
Withstand the fire
Paul’s blueprint for Saturday starts with the first quarter.
“It’s the blueprint we did against the Boks. You’ve got to be able to withstand the fire. This first 20 minutes at Eden Park, they are going to be absolutely wanting to rip off the Wallabies’ head.”
“So that’s key there, being able to make sure you can take that onslaught, first 20 minutes, and then have the ability to work yourself into the game where you get that confidence, get that little bit of depth as well.”
Perth is the model. South Africa scored from a maul in the tenth minute, and Australia led 24-17 at half-time. South Africa landed the first punch and Australia still went in seven points up.
He put the set piece before the backs.
“You have to play first and foremost, mate. You need to obviously get parity in the set piece, and I think that’s one thing the Wallabies did incredibly well against the world champs.”
“You get incredible confidence throughout your team, particularly from the backs, when your piggies are digging in and they’re not getting easy tries or they’re not winning the territory battle off penalties.”
That is a hooker talking, and he has the order right. If the scrum goes backwards on its own ball, the 10 stops looking for width and starts looking for touch.
Use the ball at the line
“The Boks were all over us, man. They were bashing us, but the boys just kept hanging in… When you got your opportunity, don’t just do that stupid pick and go. Use the ball, have variation at the line.”
Both sides scored almost exactly the same every time they got into the 22 in Perth: 3.9 points a visit for Australia from ten entries, 3.8 for South Africa from nine, according to Opta. Paul wants it kept that way when the line is a metre off and the pick-and-go looks easy.
The other threat to the plan is discipline. The four cards between the 70th and 77th minutes turned a 25-point lead into a four-point win.
36-34, and the man who has to deliver it
Rowe asked for a score.
“The trend of the games has been high scoring. I think it’s going to be high scoring again. I think we’re going to win 36-34… For us to win, the 10 has to have a blinder.”
Read went 43-26 to the All Blacks, Marshall 44-27 and Rowe 45-28. Everyone agrees on a lot of points. Only Paul has Australia scoring more of them.
The 10 is Ben Donaldson, and Paul was clear that he should keep the jersey.
“Donaldson obviously has to start again. You’ve got to start the same team that beat the Boks, the world champions. And I think this new 9-10 combination, Donaldson has to now get confidence. He has to lead this team around.”
Whether Les Kiss keeps the Ryan Lonergan and Donaldson pairing from Perth is the first thing to check when his team is out.
What history says about the Wallabies at Eden Park
The ground has not lost a Test since 1994, 53 matches ago. Against Australia specifically it is 24 straight All Blacks wins. The Wallabies’ last victory there came in 1986.
Paul knows the record. He is betting on the teams: one arrives injured and unsettled, the other on a run of five wins and a draw.
Read next: Ewen McKenzie called the Wallabies fly-half spot a perpetual problem, which is the history Donaldson is playing against on Saturday.
Your turn: the call
On the record here: All Blacks 38-26. Mo’unga’s calf has put Damian McKenzie at 10, which makes New Zealand less controlled and more dangerous. Hunter Paisami’s ban means Kiss is rebuilding his midfield in a week, and that is exactly where Eden Park hits in the first 20 minutes Paul is worried about. Paul says 36-34 the other way. Screenshot both. The comments are open on Saturday night.
Read next: why Rennie started Beauden Barrett at 15 and McKenzie at 10 for Eden Park.
Frequently asked
When is the Wallabies v All Blacks Bledisloe Cup Test at Eden Park?
Saturday 10 October, 19:10 NZDT, at Eden Park in Auckland. The second Test is in Sydney on Saturday 17 October.
When did the Wallabies last win at Eden Park?
1986. The All Blacks have won 24 in a row against Australia at the ground since, and have not lost a Test there since 1994.
What did Jeremy Paul predict?
A 36-34 Wallabies win, with Ben Donaldson needing “a blinder” at 10. Kieran Read picked the All Blacks 43-26, Justin Marshall 44-27 and Andy Rowe 45-28.
Where did Jeremy Paul say this?
On The Good, The Bad & Rugby ANZ, recorded on Monday 5 October with host Andy Rowe, Kieran Read and Justin Marshall.
