“Sometimes you have to roll the dice.” Rassie Erasmus has picked a new XV to face a Wallabies side that has not lost under Les Kiss.
Rassie Erasmus has made 13 changes for Springboks vs Wallabies in Perth, and he asked the obvious question before anyone else could.
“Guys, are we building the World Cups or are we trying to win between World Cups? … And sometimes you have to roll the dice,” he said as the Springboks named their side in Terrigal on Tuesday 22 September.
Eben Etzebeth and Ethan Hooker are the only starters left from the side that won the series 3-1 in Baltimore ten days ago.
So is Perth a free hit a year out from a World Cup in Australia, or a Test the Springboks should be trying to win with their best side?
Erasmus counted the minutes first
The question was about rust. The players had trained together for weeks, a reporter said, but as a combination they had not played for about a month. Erasmus started with a number.
“I always think six weeks is a good indication where game minutes is and game time is and these guys are probably on 140 minutes.”
Some have stacked it up. Hooker has played a lot, he said, and “a guy like Herschel has played probably 40 minutes.”
Later, answering a question about his hookers, Erasmus went through the starters one at a time.
“Most of the guys haven’t played a lot this season … Marco hasn’t, Herschel hasn’t, [Elrigh] hasn’t, Paul has played three games, Franco hasn’t at all, Zachary has played three games, [Grobbies] two games, [Jan-Hendrik] four games, you know, [Edwill] no games, [Aphelele] one game”
Put that list beside the team sheet. Every name on it starts on Sunday. That makes ten of the XV, from Jan-Hendrik Wessels at loosehead to Aphelele Fassi at full-back.
He rolled the dice once already, against the All Blacks
The first option, Erasmus said, “could have been, listen here, let’s chop and change against New Zealand”. He meant the version of the last month in which South Africa rotated through the series and lost it. That was the set-up for the question he asked on his critics’ behalf.
“Now, we rolled the dice a little bit against [the] All Blacks with playing consistently the same team and obviously getting some momentum as it goes on longer.”
“But if we keep on doing that, you know, how would we know when we get to the [Nations] Championship at the end of the year or at the World Cup next year? What can the next guy do?”
Continuity paid. After losing at Ellis Park, South Africa won three in a row. It also told Erasmus nothing new about the men who were not in the 23.
The Nations Championship resumes in November with Italy in Turin, France in Paris and Ireland in Dublin. Perth is the only Test before then.
Read also: the week the Springboks bench stopped winning the last quarter, and what Erasmus said when it was put to him.
The players who were the All Blacks in training
In a later answer Erasmus said what the new XV had been doing instead of playing.
“We’ve been together for 16 weeks now, so … they helped us, carried us through the All Black series, and they’ve really painted good pictures of being All Black players for us”
Painting pictures is coaching language for running the other side’s patterns at the Test team in training. For a month, most of the men who start in Perth were the All Blacks on the practice field. On Sunday they get the Test.
Erasmus did not pretend that comes without a cost.
“I don’t think they’re going to fire from the start, but I can tell you that they’re really hungry. They really want to play and they’ve been idling for a hell of a long time.”
Buenos Aires is the warning
Many of this group have been sent out together before.
“When we went to Argentina, a lot of these guys also played there and it was a bit of a stop start and a non-cohesive performance.”
That was 17-10 at the José Amalfitani on Saturday 8 August, and 10-all at half-time.
Edwill van der Merwe scored after an André Esterhuizen offload freed the backs, Cameron Hanekom carried 13 times at No 8, and Argentina’s last chance went when Matías Moroni dropped a pass in the corner, according to RugbyPass’s report.
Stop-start is Erasmus’s own word for a Test South Africa won by one converted try. It is also an honest preview of the first 20 minutes in Perth.
He did offer one comfort: “It’s not like Australia has played 300 minutes in the last three weeks or so.” The Wallabies have not played since Mendoza on Saturday 5 September.
Les Kiss has not lost yet
Kiss’s first Test in charge was in August, and he has four results: two wins over Japan to start, 35-32 in Osaka and 56-17 in Townsville, then 27-21 in Jujuy and 28-28 in Mendoza. The Bledisloe Cup follows Perth.
Erasmus’s written statement makes the other half of his case. The changes are about this opponent as much as the calendar.
“Australia poses a completely different threat to New Zealand in the way they play, so we believe these combinations would be best suited for the challenge that we will face against them.”
In Afrikaans he put it more bluntly. Anyone who thinks Australia will be easy, he said, has it the wrong way round. He wanted a fresh, energetic side to match their speed, and a bench full of recent Test minutes to finish the job or fix it.
What Springboks vs Wallabies tells Erasmus
The downside is one Test. South Africa have won five of their last six against Australia, and the one defeat in that run, 38-22, came in Johannesburg last year.
The return is an answer to Erasmus’s own question, a year before a World Cup in Australia. Grobbelaar, Porthen, Fassi and the rest either hold a Test together against a side unbeaten under its new coach, or the list Erasmus read out on Tuesday becomes the first thing anybody asks him about on Sunday night.
He rolled the dice against the All Blacks and it came up. This throw is harder to read, and he knows it.
Read next: the Wallabies’ last Test, a 28-all draw in Mendoza, and what it showed about the side Erasmus is picking against.
Springboks Team vs Wallabies:
Springbok team: Aphelele Fassi, Edwill van der Merwe, Canan Moodie, Andre Esterhuizen (captain), Ethan Hooker, Handre Pollard, Herschel Jantjies, Marco van Staden, Elrigh Louw, Paul de Villiers, Franco Mostert, Eben Etzebeth, Zachary Porthen, Johan Grobbelaar, Jan-Hendrik Wessels.
Replacements: Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche, Wilco Louw, Lood de Jager, Jasper Wiese, Morne van den Berg, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Quan Horn.
Your turn: free hit, or full strength?
Two ways to see it. Perth is the last Test before November and a year out from a World Cup in Australia, and there is no better place to find out whether the next group can hold a Test at full pace.
Or it is a Test against a team unbeaten under its new coach, and the world champions should not be picking a side to find things out. One of those is planning. The other is respect for the fixture. Which one would you have picked?
Frequently asked
How many changes have the Springboks made for the Wallabies Test?
Thirteen from the side that beat New Zealand 43-28 in Baltimore. Only Eben Etzebeth and Ethan Hooker keep their places, and André Esterhuizen captains.
Have the Wallabies lost under Les Kiss?
No. Since taking over in August, Kiss’s Australia have beaten Japan 35-32 and 56-17, beaten Argentina 27-21 and drawn 28-28 in Mendoza.
When is Springboks vs Wallabies in Perth?
Sunday 27 September at Optus Stadium, with kick-off at 5.45pm local time, 11.45am in South Africa.
