Justin Marshall went back through all four Springboks Tests looking for where the series turned, and came out naming the man who should have been hunting. “Ironically, probably our best guy over the ball can’t even make the team,” he said. “And that’s Tavatava.” Then he named a hooker who is not in the squad at all.
Marshall, 81 Tests at halfback, said it on The Good, The Bad & Rugby ANZ with Kieran Read beside him.
Tavatava is Timoci Tavatavanawai, the Highlanders back, who is in the 34-man Bledisloe squad with two caps. Marshall counts one Test in four where the All Blacks turnovers went their way. That was the night Jordie Barrett made 15 tackles and won five turnovers at Ellis Park.
If the best man over the ball in the country cannot get into the XV, who wins it back at Eden Park on Saturday? Name him below.
The best hooker over the ball is not in the squad
Andy Rowe asked who could win the ball. Marshall started with a man who is not there.
“Some of them ain’t happening because of… because of certain selections. Like for example, I think probably the best hooker going around the country at the moment getting over the ball’s George Bell. He’s not even in the squad… he’s very good over the ball… he’s super dynamic.”
George Bell, 24, was ruled out with a calf injury during the Rivalry tour and has since returned in the NPC. The hookers in the 34-man squad named on 29 September are Codie Taylor, Asafo Aumua and Samisoni Taukei’aho, 183 caps between them.
None of the three is a bad hooker. I wouldn’t pick any of them to hunt.
Marshall knows the problem with his own pick.
“He’s probably the best bloke in that squad… over the ball. So I just wonder how we’re going to get that balance because we got to have front rowers. The modern day commands that everybody’s got to be over the ball, wingers, midfield backs, loosies.”
Tavatavanawai’s reputation is built on exactly this, the steal in the wide channel that nobody expects from a back. Two caps say the All Blacks have not found a way to use it.
The All Blacks won the ball back once in four Tests
“It was the big difference to me in the four Tests because I had a real good sit down and think about it, which is very unlike me… where did I think we went wrong from Test one to Test four? … They were still very good in Test one, the Springboks. But what we did is we actually… turned the ball over that day.”
He did not pretend it was all New Zealand’s doing.
“Now, some of it was their errors, but we forced them into making errors and we… made some big plays. Jordie made a couple inside the 22.”
Then he widened the definition.
“Sometimes getting a turnover is not just getting over the ball and physically getting it, is it? It’s putting pressure on the ball or on the cleaner.”
It is the halfback’s definition, and it is wider than the openside’s.
“To make them make an error or to compromise their ball presentation or whatever, and attacking that with that mindset. And I think we did that really well in the first Test. But through the next three, I just… feel they won that contest on us.”
A turnover counted on a stats sheet is a steal. In Marshall’s sense it is also a knock-on forced by a man on the ball, or a slow clean that lets the line reset.
The first Test had those. The next three, including 29-24 at FNB Stadium and 43-28 in Baltimore, went to South Africa.
The Springboks send five men after the ball
Then he looked at the Springboks.
“A team like South Africa, like breaking them down from set piece… all the time is just not easy because they are so well organised… and so well drilled, and then they got people hunting the ball.”
He named them in one breath.
“Marx is over it, Ox Nché’s over, Pieter-Steph du Toit’s over it, de Villiers is over the goddamn thing… They got guys over the ball all the time turning our ball over because we’re… playing a lot from structure. So we… need to start picking some players.”
Five Springboks got a name check, two of them front-rowers. They hunt in a pack, and a defence that only makes numbers cannot live with that.
Marshall’s framing of his own side was the opposite. All Black rugby, he said, “has always thrived on turnover ball”, because a defence caught after a steal is not organised. His concern is that the current side is “not turning the ball over enough to create those opportunities”.
Read also: the All Blacks attack coach explained why he prefers a wasted chance to a lost ball. That is what an attack sounds like when it never gets broken-field ball.
McCaw was never a lone wolf
Marshall turned to the man beside him.
“Not easy for me to say cuz he’s sitting here next to me, but anyway… that mindset out there that Richie McCaw was the machine over the ball. Yeah, he was, but he was able to get over the ball cuz others was like this guy here.”
The list did not stop at Read.
“Sam Whitelock was in on the ball… So what we can’t have is a lone wolf out there.”
A single jackal gets targeted. The first cleaner is sent at him every time, and he spends the match on the floor. McCaw was over the ball so often because defences could not send everyone at him without leaving Read or Whitelock free.
The one lone wolf in the current squad has a name.
“Now Segner, to me, he’s brave as [expletive]. He’ll get over the ball. No doubt about it… I thought the Sharks game he was outstanding. Got some real key ones.”
Marshall’s catch is the number.
“But… he can’t be lone soldier out there because he’s… you need others to show the picture to defence that it’s just not one guy.”
Anton Segner has two caps. Ardie Savea dislocated his shoulder in Soweto. The All Blacks do not have a specialist seven, John Kirwan said last month. Marshall’s answer is to stop looking for one and pick three men who all compete.
All Blacks turnovers: the mindset should not back off for the Wallabies
“As a pack and as a team, the All Blacks need to get back to thinking about getting turnover ball… just because it’s not South Africa and we can be more physical and are more usually physical dominating against Australia, that doesn’t mean that that mindset should back off.”
He put it on the coaches too.
“It should have been a concern for them when they reviewed that tour.”
Australia bring a different threat. Less line speed, more width, and a side that scored five tries in a 42-38 win over the Springboks in Perth. A side that wins the ball back at the ruck starves that back line. A side that only makes numbers gives it 80 minutes of possession to work with.
The tell on Saturday is the first ruck after a Wallabies carry past halfway. One All Black over the ball is Segner being brave. Two is a change of mind.
Read next: why the All Blacks lost at FNB Stadium, the Test where the contest Marshall describes was first lost.
Your turn: name the hunter
Marshall says the best jackal cannot start and the best hooker over the ball is not in the squad. Name the All Black who wins the ball back at Eden Park on Saturday, and the man who helps him. The argument is above. Take it apart below.
Frequently asked
Who does Justin Marshall say is the All Blacks’ best player over the ball?
Timoci Tavatavanawai, the Highlanders back he calls “Tavatava”, who is in the Bledisloe squad with two caps. Marshall also named George Bell as the best hooker in New Zealand over the ball. Bell is not in the squad.
Is George Bell in the All Blacks squad for the Bledisloe Cup?
No. He was ruled out with a calf injury during the Rivalry tour. The squad named on 29 September carries Codie Taylor, Asafo Aumua and Samisoni Taukei’aho at hooker.
Where did Justin Marshall say this?
On the Bledisloe preview episode of The Good, The Bad & Rugby ANZ, with host Andy Rowe, Kieran Read and the former Wallabies hooker Jeremy Paul.
