Dave Rennie named Richie Mo’unga at 10 for the Baltimore decider. Then he explained why, and it had nothing to do with Soweto.
“We talked about a couple of weeks ago that regardless of the results… whether we came here up 2-1 or down 2-1 we were going to start Richie.”
The All Blacks head coach said that at the team announcement in Baltimore on Thursday, answering the first question of the session. The Richie Mo’unga All Blacks recall that half of New Zealand has spent a week demanding was already written down before the second Test was played. Ruben Love’s afternoon at FNB Stadium changed nothing. Neither would a series lead.
Which raises a harder question about what the last three weeks were actually for. So was Ruben Love ever really in a fight for that jersey, or was he keeping it warm? Drop your answer in the comments before kick-off.
The plan was never about form
New Zealand are 2-1 down with one Test to play at M&T Bank Stadium. They cannot win this series. They can stop South Africa winning it for the first time since 1976. The panel that picked New Zealand’s ideal Baltimore team spent the week arguing about the pack. Rennie changed the 10.
So the temptation is to read Mo’unga’s first start of the series as a coach reaching for the ripcord. Rennie shut that down in his opening answer, and he did not leave himself any room to be misunderstood. Up 2-1 or down 2-1, the 56-cap fly-half was starting this Test.
That was already written down in July.
Which means the audition had a fixed end date, and the man holding the jersey was never told the length of it in public. John Kirwan said he would not be surprised to see Mo’unga at 10 in Baltimore after Soweto, and he was right. He was right for the wrong reason.
Love is not on the bench either. He is out of the 23 entirely.
The sentence about Ruben Love that should stop you
Rennie was asked about Love and delivered the most revealing line of the week while apparently paying his 10 a compliment.
“When I spoke to him I stressed the fact that… last week was probably the biggest test the [All] Blacks have played since the World Cup final and you trusted him to run the ship ahead of probably three more experienced 10[s]. So… that highlights where we see him.”
Sit with that. A head coach is telling a player he is being replaced, and his argument for why the player should feel fine about it is that the staff handed him the most important match of the cycle ahead of three more experienced options. It is generous. It also tells you his selection policy has been an act of faith, not a settled hierarchy.
Love has played in every one of New Zealand’s six Tests this year. Rennie said so himself on Thursday: “He’s played the first six tests of the year.”
He was fault-free through a Springboks pack at Ellis Park. He took the yellow card one Crusaders coach called the harshest in Test history in Soweto. And at the end of it, the plan was the plan.
Read also: why the error-to-scrum-to-penalty chain cost New Zealand at FNB Stadium — the mechanism Rennie is trying to fix with this selection.
What the Richie Mo’unga All Blacks pick is really about
Rennie has already said what is wrong with his team. It explains the pick better than any form argument.
“We created a lot of opportunities in the weekend. I think was 12 line breaks to five,” he said of Soweto. “But [the] Spring[bok]s [are] so good at scrambling… at times we had plenty of numbers left over but they were able to shut us down.”
“The thing that frustrated us second half was we couldn’t play with the continuity we wanted and that’s our own issue. You make an error, ends up being a scrum. There was often a penalty and [the] Spring[bok]s were able to piggy back down the field.”
Every link in that chain is a fly-half’s problem. An error under pressure becomes a scrum. A scrum against this South African front row becomes a penalty. A penalty becomes fifty metres and a lineout five out. New Zealand have been making line breaks all series and losing the territory war anyway.
Watch Mo’unga’s first three exits on Saturday, the kicks that get New Zealand out of their own 22. Not the flat balls to Jordie Barrett. The exits. A side that cannot escape its own half against the Springboks has a fine attack it never gets near enough to use. Mo’unga was recalled in August after Billy Proctor’s injury and has spent the tour inside the group without playing a minute from the start. Rennie’s case for him is simple: he has a “really clear understanding of the game we want to play.”
Rennie refuses the duel
The New Zealand media framed it as Love against Mo’unga, one jersey, one winner.
“Bowden [Beauden Barrett]’s not out of the reckoning from a 10 point of view and obviously Damian [McKenzie] plays 10. So between those guys we feel [we’ve] got really good depth in 10 and 15.”
The bench backs the words up. Beauden Barrett is named on it at 23, on 144 caps, and by Rennie’s own account he “sat on the sidelines for the first six tests of the year”. This is the first Test all season in which Rennie has named a specialist playmaker among his replacements, a premise he accepted when it was put to him in Baltimore. Rieko Ioane is at 22, Kyle Preston covers nine, and the coach’s explanation is a squad man’s explanation: “it gives us a chance to have a genuine 10 15 cover if we lost someone.”
Four men for two jerseys, with a World Cup eighteen months out. Rennie is stress-testing four men, not picking two.
The part that is still open
If the Mo’unga start was always coming, then one of two things is true about the last six Tests.
Either Love was given a genuine run at the jersey and the staff simply wanted to see Mo’unga in a live Test before the season ended, which is defensible, and which makes this a look at the other candidate rather than a demotion.
Or the plan was written in a room in July and no performance in it was ever going to move the pick. That is squad management with a team sheet on top, and it is the version Love’s supporters will believe.
Saturday answers it. If Mo’unga controls the exits and New Zealand square the series, Rennie’s fixed plan looks like foresight. If the same chain of errors and scrums and penalties happens again with a different 10 running it, the problem was never the jersey.
Read next: New Zealand have outscored South Africa across three Tests and are one draw from losing the series — the numbers that explain why Rennie keeps talking about continuity instead of chances.
Your turn
Two readings of the same sentence. Either Rennie ran a planned, patient audition of four fly-halves in the hardest series on the calendar and always intended to see all of them, or he made his mind up in July and six Tests of Ruben Love were never going to change it. One of those is a policy. The other is a decision dressed up as one. Which did you watch?
Frequently asked
Why is Richie Mo’unga starting against the Springboks in Baltimore?
Dave Rennie says the decision was made weeks in advance and was not influenced by results: “regardless of the results… we were going to start Richie.” Mo’unga has been in the squad since August and Rennie credits him with a clear understanding of how New Zealand want to play.
Has Ruben Love been dropped?
He has lost the starting jersey for this Test and is not in the matchday 23, but Rennie defended him at length and framed the group of fly-halves as a rotation rather than a contest, pointing out that Love has played in all six Tests this season.
Who captains the All Blacks in Baltimore?
Codie Taylor, on 111 caps. He was already the tour captain, and with Ardie Savea and Luke Jacobson sent home injured from Johannesburg, Rennie said the choice “made sense to us”.
Can New Zealand still win the series?
No. South Africa lead 2-1 with one to play. A New Zealand win squares it 2-2 and splits the trophy; a South African win would be their first series victory over the All Blacks since 1976.
