Sky Sport’s panel spent ten minutes on Sunday night choosing the All Blacks team for Baltimore. By Monday Dave Rennie had sent one of their picks home and answered the argument behind the rest of them in a single sentence.
Brad Weber’s fix for the All Blacks scrum in Baltimore was Saula Ma’u, the 140kg Highlanders tighthead who came off the bench against the Lions and, in Weber’s words, “absolutely locked it down”. Rennie named his 36-man squad for the fourth Test on Sunday, South African time. Ma’u was one of nine players on the way back to New Zealand.
So the All Blacks team for Baltimore that Sky Sport NZ’s The Breakdown built on Sunday 6 September already has a hole in it, and it sits under the scrum, which is where every hole in this series has been. The XV this site would send out is at the bottom. Would you send out the same one?
The panel was Brad Weber (18 Tests), Angus Ta’avao (23), Mils Muliaina (100) and Jeff Wilson (60). On Monday Rennie answered the question they had spent the show arguing about.
Rennie has already answered the biggest question they asked
The All Blacks landed in Baltimore after 26 hours in the air, and their coach was asked whether a dead series changes his selection.
“We sort of always thought we would make changes in the fourth test regardless of whether we won that third one or not… We want to make sure we are bringing in guys with plenty of energy and to share the load.”
So the argument the panel spent ten minutes on, whether to pick the strongest side or spread the load, was settled before they started. The number one team is not coming. Rennie names the side on Thursday, and Reuters reported the same day that Richie Mo’unga is in line to take the 10 jersey from Ruben Love, with Rieko Ioane, left out of the 23 in Soweto, an option in a midfield missing Tupaea.
He also gave the week its only quotable line about what is left to play for. “There is massive emotional disappointment, but there’s a lot to play for in our minds. We can win this weekend and tie the series 2-2 and will go home knowing we’re in a better spot than when we arrived.”
Who is in the 36, and who is not
Three players were ruled out by Saturday’s injuries and will not travel to Baltimore: Ardie Savea (dislocated shoulder), Quinn Tupaea (knee ligament) and Luke Jacobson (elbow tendon). Six more were released: Josh Jacomb, Siale Lauaki, Ma’u, Bradley Slater, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, who has been ill, and Cortez Ratima, who has a knee injury.
The 36 who fly are 20 forwards and 16 backs. Ethan de Groot, who was concussed earlier on tour, is in it. So are Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett, neither of whom has been in a Test 23 in South Africa.
Weber’s bench pick: Tavatavanawai, for a skill nobody else has
“I’d love to see Timoci Tavatavanawai on the bench. I think he goes to the bench because I think we bring Anton on to start, and then I would like a little trial… off the bench, potentially for the actual test side, the big test side, moving forward. Because he brings a skill set that a lot of our guys in the midfield just don’t have. It’s the game-breaking ability, the tackle busting, but also the ability to get over the ball and jackal and win turnovers…”
The logic is Tupaea’s knee. Lienert-Brown, 93 caps, came off the bench for him in Soweto and is the obvious starter at 13. That leaves the midfield bench spot open, and Weber’s argument for Tavatavanawai is that a back who can win the ball on the ground is a different weapon from another passer.
Weber’s scrum pick: the man on the plane
“In the game against the Lions, in the midweek games, our scrum was getting rolled. The Lions scored a pushover try from the scrum, and Saula come on onto the tighthead side, and he absolutely locked it down. Now, we’ve talked about scrums a hell of a lot in this half an hour. I would love to see him get a chance to lock it down against the big boys.”
Ta’avao, who played with Ma’u at the Highlanders, called the idea “a little smoky” and backed it: “He’s come back from a shoulder surgery and he’s gone from strength to strength this year.”
The tape says less than Weber does. Ma’u was 6.5 in this site’s ratings for that night: the Lions dominated his first scrum and won a penalty off it on 69 minutes, and six minutes later he was part of the set piece that drove them backwards. A fair first night, ten days after playing NPC rugby. Not a selection case against Ox Nché.
Rennie agreed. Ma’u is going home with Slater and Tu’ungafasi, and the tightheads in the 36 are Tyrel Lomax, Fletcher Newell and Pasilio Tosi.
Read also: John Kirwan would not be surprised to see Mo’unga at 10 in Baltimore, and Ta’avao’s pick goes further than that.
Ta’avao’s pick: Mo’unga and Barrett, a “World Cup throwback”
“Do we see a little World Cup throwback? Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett, 10-15? That’s probably a big one. They haven’t played, but they know how to play.”
The dual-playmaker shape that took New Zealand to the 2023 final has not started a Test together since. Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett did wear 10 and 15 together on this tour, against the Lions at Ellis Park on 25 August, but that was a midweek tour game and neither has been in a Test 23 in South Africa.
Ruben Love has started every Test at 10 and left seven points on the FNB Stadium tee. Damian McKenzie wore 15 in Soweto. Ta’avao’s case is that the two most experienced backs in the party have not been asked a question yet, and Baltimore is the last one before the Bledisloe.
Then the seven. “Is it Peter Lakai goes to seven, or do we bring Ethan Blackadder, who’s a big body, brings work rate, just a madman, and physical?” Weber answered for him: “Put Blackadder there, but Peter Lakai still starts. Peter Lakai is our eight and Blackadder is our seven.”
Wilson, from South Africa, wanted the pack rebuilt from the front. “Maybe does a Josh Lord come back into the conversation. Does Tupou Vaa’i consider going back to the blindside flank? Something that worked really well in the first test. Maybe Ethan de Groot, if he’s recovered well enough.” Vaa’i started the first Test at blindside, with Josh Lord at lock beside Fabian Holland, and New Zealand won by 17.
Muliaina wanted none of it. “I think we go number one team. I think this is about winning now.” His coach had already ruled that out.
Who captains? The panel’s answer took one second
A viewer asked who leads the side without Savea and Jacobson. The panel’s answer was Jordie Barrett, if he plays, with Patrick Tuipulotu, who captained the midweek win over the Lions, as the alternative. The case for Barrett is the tape: a game-high 14 tackles in Soweto on RugbyPass’s count, 11 carries, and the clearest All Black defender on the night.
On Savea, Ta’avao went as far as a former prop can. “I’m no surgeon. I’m no doctor. But the word that’s coming out is it’s a dislocated shoulder. And Fabian Holland had that at the start of the Super Rugby season, and there’s a decision to make. Do you just try and rehab it, or do you have surgery, which is a lot more concrete in how that recovery is going to be? I would be surprised if I saw him in an All Black jersey again this year.”
Holland had surgery in February and is in the 36. Weber’s comparison was Brodie Retallick, who dislocated a shoulder against South Africa in Wellington in July 2019 and was back at the World Cup that October. “But when’s the World Cup, buddy?” Next year.
Nothing on surgery has come from the team, and nothing here should be read as if it had.
The All Blacks team for Baltimore, and the one Rennie should pick
Rennie has to replace a captain, a 7 and a 13, and do it against a Springboks side that cannot lose the series. Rassie Erasmus named his on Monday and changed two: Damian Willemse at fullback for the injured Cheslin Kolbe, and Morné van den Berg at scrum-half for Cobus Reinach. Baltimore is not a dead rubber for New Zealand: a 2-2 series splits the trophy, and 3-1 hands it to South Africa outright.
Before Monday the safe expectation was the side that started in Soweto, with three forced changes and Love keeping 10. Rennie has taken that off the table. Expect Lienert-Brown or Ioane at 13, Blackadder at 7, Wallace Sititi at 8 after 49 minutes in Savea’s place, Barrett captain, and a new 10.
The side this site would pick was the panel’s on Sunday, and Monday made it look less like a wish list.
De Groot, Asafo Aumua, Lomax. Lord and Holland. Vaa’i, Blackadder, Lakai. Cam Roigard, Mo’unga. Leroy Carter, Jordie Barrett as captain, Lienert-Brown, Will Jordan, Beauden Barrett. Tavatavanawai on the bench with Sititi, and Love there to kick the goals.
It leaves Rieko Ioane out, which is the pick worth arguing with, and it puts the 10-15 axis from the last World Cup final into a Test together for the first time on this tour. If this one is wrong, the comments are open on Sunday morning.
Frequently asked
Who is in the All Blacks squad for Baltimore?
Dave Rennie named a 36-man squad on Sunday 6 September: 20 forwards and 16 backs. The forwards include Ethan de Groot, Josh Lord, Tupou Vaa’i, Fabian Holland, Ethan Blackadder, Peter Lakai and Wallace Sititi. The backs include Richie Mo’unga, Beauden Barrett, Ruben Love, Jordie Barrett, Anton Lienert-Brown, Timoci Tavatavanawai, Will Jordan and Damian McKenzie. Nine players went home: Ardie Savea, Quinn Tupaea, Luke Jacobson, Cortez Ratima, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Josh Jacomb, Siale Lauaki, Saula Ma’u and Bradley Slater.
Who will captain the All Blacks in Baltimore?
Nothing has been announced, and Dave Rennie names his side on Thursday. Sky Sport’s The Breakdown panel made Jordie Barrett the lead contender if he plays, with Patrick Tuipulotu, who captained the midweek game against the Lions, as the alternative. Ardie Savea and Luke Jacobson, who captained the side in turn in Soweto, have both gone home injured.
When is the All Blacks fourth Test against the Springboks?
At M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, where kick-off is 10pm in the UK on Saturday 12 September, 11pm in South Africa and Sunday morning in New Zealand. South Africa lead 2-1. A draw in the series would see the trophy shared.
Your turn
On the record: Jordie Barrett captains, Blackadder starts at 7, and Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett get the 10 and 15 jerseys together in a Test for the first time since the 2023 World Cup final. If Rennie names Love and McKenzie again instead, that is a coach backing continuity in a series he can only draw. Which side would you send out in Baltimore, the one that finished Soweto or the one that has been waiting on the bus? Settle it below.
