The Springboks are one win away from taking the series. The All Blacks are one defeat away from leaving Baltimore with a much bigger question about where they stand a year out from a World Cup.
South Africa lead Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry 2-1. New Zealand have one chance left to level it, and Dave Rennie has brought Richie Mo’unga back for his first All Blacks Test in three years.
There is no fifth Test waiting afterwards. Springboks vs All Blacks Baltimore is where a four-Test series gets settled, one way or the other.
Springboks 3-1, or does Mo’unga drag the All Blacks to a 2-2 draw? Drop your call in the comments before kick-off.
How the Springboks took control of the series
New Zealand could hardly have started better.
The All Blacks won 33-16 at Ellis Park on 22 August, putting South Africa under pressure from the opening quarter and handing Rennie’s side control of the tour.
South Africa then responded twice.
The Springboks took the second Test 33-26 in Cape Town, then won 29-24 at FNB Stadium to lead the series 2-1 in front of 87,976 in Soweto.
The margin in Johannesburg flattered New Zealand slightly, closed by a try after the hooter. South Africa had already done the important part: put themselves in a position where the All Blacks have to win.
A Springboks win makes it 3-1 and ends a fifty-year wait, their last series win over New Zealand having come in 1976.
A New Zealand win leaves the four-Test series level at 2-2, and the trophy, built in two halves held together by magnets, splits between the countries.
Richie Mo’unga returns for the match New Zealand must win
The biggest selection call is impossible to miss.
The 32-year-old wears the All Blacks 10 jersey for the first time since the 2023 World Cup final against these same opponents in Paris, a match he started and lost by a point.
Mo’unga replaces Ruben Love, and this was not a reaction to Soweto. Rennie settled on Mo’unga weeks beforehand, win or lose.
Anton Lienert-Brown and Josh Moorby come into the backline. Codie Taylor returns at hooker and takes the captaincy, because Ardie Savea did not travel to the United States after dislocating a shoulder.
The pack has been reshuffled too. Sam Darry starts at lock, Ethan Blackadder comes into the back row, and Tupou Vaa’i shifts to blindside.
It is a very different side, and it gives Mo’unga no warm-up period whatsoever. He has eighty minutes to save a series.
Erasmus backs the team that won at FNB Stadium
South Africa have gone the other way entirely.
Rassie Erasmus made two changes to the starting XV, and one of those was forced.
Cheslin Kolbe misses out after a broken jaw suffered nine minutes into the Soweto Test. Damian Willemse, back from the hamstring injury that cost him the second Test, returns at fullback.
The other change is at scrum-half, where Morné van den Berg starts after coming off the bench in Soweto and Cobus Reinach drops to the replacements.
Everything else stays. Jasper Wiese at 8, Siya Kolisi on the flank, Eben Etzebeth alongside Ruan Nortje in the second row, Malcolm Marx between Ox Nché and Wilco Louw.
The message in that team sheet is not subtle. South Africa are not rebuilding anything for Baltimore. They are backing the combinations that put them ahead.
The Feinberg-Mngomezulu number nobody is quoting
Mo’unga’s return will take most of the attention. The record of the man opposite him deserves more than it is getting.
South Africa have won 14 of the 15 Tests Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has started at fly-half.
The only defeat came at Ellis Park three weeks ago.
He has started both Springboks wins since, in Cape Town and Soweto, which makes Baltimore his 16th start and the first in which South Africa are closing a series out rather than chasing one.
Read also: Erasmus says he is not hitting his straps, and picked him anyway.
That 10 channel is the matchup of the night: a fly-half who has barely lost in the jersey against one playing his first Test in three years.
Siya Kolisi already made history in Johannesburg
Soweto was Kolisi’s 55th Test win as Springboks captain, which took him past John Smit’s 54 and made him the most successful captain South Africa have had.
Baltimore offers the sequel. Nobody has yet captained a side to a Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series win, because the competition has never been played before.
A victory completes a recovery from a 17-point beating in the opening Test. A defeat hands New Zealand a very different story to fly home with.
Read also: Trevor Nyakane on why a captain who never shouts keeps working.
How both sides will try to play it
South Africa have no reason to change anything: physical pressure, territory, the scrum, the maul, and a kicking game built to make New Zealand play from places they would rather not.
If that pattern lands early, the night gets long for the All Blacks.
New Zealand’s danger is the opposite. Will Jordan, Damian McKenzie and Mo’unga with clean ball and a retreating defence in front of them is the situation South Africa least want to see repeatedly.
So the Springboks need discipline as much as physicality. Cheap possession, easy entries into the 22, or a ten-minute lapse after a long spell on top would undo a lot of work.
And because the All Blacks must win, the scoreboard will eventually force them into risks South Africa simply do not have to take.
Springboks vs All Blacks Baltimore: both team sheets
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morné van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nché.
Replacements: Deon Fourie, Gerhard Steenekamp, Thomas du Toit, Lood de Jager, André Esterhuizen, Cameron Hanekom, Cobus Reinach, Manie Libbok.
New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ethan Blackadder, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Sam Darry, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor (captain), 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: Asafo Aumua, Xavier Numia, Tyrel Lomax, Josh Lord, Wallace Sititi, Kyle Preston, Rieko Ioane, Beauden Barrett.
Both squads were named on Monday and Thursday respectively.
Kick-off time, TV and match officials
The fourth and final Test is at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland, on Saturday 12 September, kicking off at 5pm EDT.
| Country | Local kick-off | Where to watch |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 17:00 Sat | RugbyPass TV (free) |
| South Africa | 23:00 Sat | SuperSport |
| UK & Ireland | 22:00 Sat | Sky Sports |
| New Zealand | 09:00 Sun | Sky Sport |
| Australia | 07:00 Sun AEST | Stan Sport |
Match officials are an all-English team apart from the foul-play review officer. Karl Dickson referees, with Matthew Carley and Christophe Ridley as assistant referees, Andrew Jackson as TMO and Matteo Liperini of Italy as FPRO.
For the rest of the tour, here is every fixture and kick-off time in Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry.
Your turn
South Africa have shown they can respond after being beaten. New Zealand now have to prove the same thing, having changed a pack, recalled a fly-half who has not played a Test since 2023 and handed the captaincy to a hooker. Erasmus has barely touched his side. By Saturday night one of those two approaches will look a great deal smarter than the other. Which one is it? The comments are open.
Frequently asked
What time is Springboks vs All Blacks in Baltimore?
Kick-off is 5pm EDT on Saturday 12 September at M&T Bank Stadium. That means 23:00 in South Africa, 22:00 in the UK and Ireland, 9am on Sunday in New Zealand and 7am Sunday AEST in Australia.
Who wins the series if the All Blacks win in Baltimore?
Nobody. South Africa lead 2-1, so a New Zealand win leaves the four-Test series drawn 2-2 and the trophy splits, one half staying in each country. South Africa need a win or a draw to take it 3-1.
Why is Richie Mo’unga starting at 10 for the All Blacks?
Dave Rennie has said the call was made weeks in advance and would have stood whether New Zealand arrived 2-1 up or down. It is Mo’unga’s first Test since the 2023 World Cup final, after three seasons in Japan.
Who is refereeing Springboks vs All Blacks in Baltimore?
Karl Dickson of England, with Matthew Carley and Christophe Ridley as assistant referees, Andrew Jackson as TMO and Matteo Liperini as foul-play review officer.
