Two England internationals, one diagnosis: South Africa have France in a headlock, and Friday 13 November in Paris is where it gets broken or not.
“For me, the French have to beat them in November. They have to beat them in November. If they don’t, that psychological barrier will be there come the World Cup.” Ben Youngs, 127 England caps, on Sunday.
He said it on For The Love Of Rugby the morning after the Springboks beat New Zealand 43-28 in Baltimore. It was the same answer that left England off his list of four teams who can win the World Cup.
Dan Cole had got there thirty-six minutes earlier with a shorter word.
“At the minute the Boks have got them in a bit of a headlock.” Cole, 118 caps at tighthead, four minutes into the show.
Springboks vs France is Friday 13 November at the Stade de France. Below: the five scorelines behind “headlock”, Cole’s theory of how anyone beats this side, and the fixture that hands France the Springboks one game warm.
Is Youngs right that November decides the World Cup for France? Yes or no, in the comments.
Springboks vs France: the headlock in five scorelines
| Date | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 18 November 2017 | Stade de France | France 17-18 South Africa |
| 10 November 2018 | Stade de France | France 26-29 South Africa |
| 12 November 2022 | Marseille | France 30-26 South Africa |
| 15 October 2023 | Stade de France, World Cup quarter-final | France 28-29 South Africa |
| 8 November 2025 | Stade de France | France 17-32 South Africa |
Source: South Africa’s Test ledger, ESPN Scrum via Wikipedia, checked this week.
One French win in five. Three of the five decided by three points or fewer, all three to South Africa, one of them a home World Cup quarter-final.
Then last November: France 14-13 up at half-time through two Damian Penaud tries, Lood de Jager sent off before the break, and South Africa outscored France 19-3 after the break with 14 men.
Ireland, the other side both hosts named, have beaten South Africa three times since 2022: Dublin, a World Cup pool game in Paris, and Durban by a point.
France have done it once, in Marseille.
Cole’s theory: play the World Cup in reverse
Cole was answering the question Youngs opened the show with, whether anyone can stop this side.
“If you played the World Cup in reverse, right, and played the final at the start, you might be able to get the Boks … the first game, they don’t perform up to their level, and then obviously the more the tournaments go on, the more this series has gone on, the better they’ve got. So you almost have to catch them cold in a sort of one-off game.”
The ledger backs him further than he probably knew.
| Campaign | Opener | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 World Cup | Lost 13-23 to New Zealand, Yokohama | Won the World Cup |
| 2021 Lions series | Lost 17-22, Cape Town | Won 2-1 |
| 2025 Rugby Championship | Lost 22-38 to Australia, Ellis Park | Won the title |
| 2026 series v New Zealand | Lost 16-33, Ellis Park | Won 3-1 |
Source: the same ledger. Tournaments and series only.
Four openers lost since the 2019 World Cup, four campaigns won.
The other half is honest too. They won the openers in the 2022 and 2023 Rugby Championships and lost both titles to New Zealand. The 2023 World Cup and the 2024 Rugby Championship they won from the front.
So the pattern says catch them cold. It also says a cold Springboks side starts winning by week two, which is how they lost the first Test at Ellis Park and won the series 3-1.
Now the Marseille game. France beat South Africa on Saturday 12 November 2022, the second match of a tour that had opened with a defeat in Dublin a week earlier. The one French win in five came against a side that was cold. Cole’s theory, before he had said it.
Read also: Aaron Smith’s four-word method for beating the Springboks, which is about making them kick rather than catching them early.
The fixture list gives France the Springboks one game warm
This is the problem with Youngs’s deadline. The Springboks open their November in Turin against Italy on Saturday 7 November. Paris is their second game. Italy get them cold. France get them with a Test in their legs, in a stadium where they have won on all four visits since 2017.
Youngs’s version: the barrier travels to Australia
Youngs’s full answer put the burden on France anyway.
“I think the French can definitely compete, but they have a psychological barrier when it comes to the Boks, and it’s something that they just cannot get over right now. For me, the French have to beat them in November. They have to beat them in November. If they don’t, that psychological barrier will be there come the World Cup, and therefore it’s a hurdle they just cannot overcome.”
France’s year says they can compete. They won the Six Nations on the final weekend, 48-46 over England with the last kick. In July they sent the understudies south and came back top of the northern pool: a 34-32 defeat in Christchurch, then wins in Brisbane and Tokyo.
The rankings say what the gap is. South Africa sit on 95.09 after Baltimore, their biggest lead over New Zealand since July 2024. France are fourth on 87.43.
And the barrier Youngs describes does travel. At the World Cup the two sides are in different pools for 2027. The next meeting after November is a knockout game, which is where the barrier was built in 2023.
Nick Mallett says movement rugby will not do it. Cole described what France will meet.
“Those Tests two and three really showed them knuckle down and show the world that when they play the Boks way, that’s almost like a bit of a sounding for the World Cup.”
Beat them in November could mean beating them twice
There is one more twist in the calendar. The Nations Championship finals weekend at Twickenham pairs first with first. If South Africa and France both top their pools, “beat them in November” means doing it twice in sixteen days, Paris on the 13th and London on the 29th.
Once breaks a barrier. Twice would end the conversation.
Read next:
– Steve Hansen and Ewen McKenzie’s six reasons the Springboks lead the world, two of which cannot be coached, which is the part France cannot copy by November.
– Bryn Hall’s case for Rassie Erasmus as the greatest coach, and the win rate that belongs to Steve Hansen. The number that explains why openers are the only opening.
Your turn: does 13 November decide the World Cup for France?
Two readings of one fixture. Either Youngs is right and a France side that loses in Paris again carries the loss to Australia, three points and a red card at a time.
Or Cole is right and the only way past South Africa is a cold one-off, which France will not get in November because Italy get it first. Which one do you back? Settle it below.
Frequently asked
When do France play South Africa in November 2026?
Friday 13 November at the Stade de France, kick-off 21:10 local time, in the second round of the Nations Championship. South Africa play Italy the week before and Ireland the week after. If both top their pools, they meet again in the final at Twickenham on 29 November.
What is France’s record against the Springboks?
One win in the last five meetings, 30-26 in Marseille in November 2022. South Africa won the other four, three by three points or fewer, including the 2023 World Cup quarter-final and last November’s 32-17 in Paris with 14 men.
What did Ben Youngs say about France and the Springboks?
That France can compete but have a psychological barrier against South Africa, that they have to beat them in November, and that if they do not, the barrier will still be there at the 2027 World Cup.
