“The Wallabies loose forwards are going to be way more experienced than the All Blacks loose forwards.” Kieran Read, on The Good, The Bad & Rugby ANZ.
That is a former All Blacks captain talking. Kieran Read said it on The Good, The Bad & Rugby ANZ this week, and on Thursday All Blacks coach Dave Rennie’s team sheet backed him. The three Wallabies who started in Perth have 159 caps. The All Blacks back row Rennie has named for Eden Park has 88.
Read also named the man New Zealand have to stop first. “I think the All Blacks have to really focus on him and nullify that part of the game,” he said of Fraser McReight.
Australia have won five and drawn one of their last six, the latest the 42-38 win over the Springboks in Perth. New Zealand arrive at Eden Park on Saturday 10 October without Ardie Savea and Luke Jacobson.
So can 88 caps beat 159 at the breakdown, or is Read selling his own side short?
The Wallabies back row is way more experienced
Read went further than the back row. He said he could not remember a Wallabies side, or part of one, with more experience than the All Blacks. Then he credited the captain.
“And Harry Wilson is obviously leading this team remarkably well alongside Les Kiss. And you can just see the team is willing to put bodies on the line, you know, for him, and he does that every week, which is outstanding.”
The numbers back him, and they are not close.
| Wallabies (Perth starters) | Caps | All Blacks (Eden Park starters) | Caps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Valetini | 69 | Tupou Vaa’i | 51 |
| Fraser McReight | 47 | Peter Lakai | 14 |
| Harry Wilson (c) | 43 | Wallace Sititi | 23 |
| Total | 159 | Total | 88 |
All Blacks caps from the team named on 8 October. Wallabies caps as of the Perth Test.
Three Wallabies, 159 caps. The three All Blacks Rennie has picked have 88, and more than half of those belong to Tupou Vaa’i, who was listed among the locks when the squad was named.
A back row that has played together through Japan, Argentina and Perth knows who hits which ruck without being told. Read’s own side is still finding out.
Read’s warning: get to McReight first
Read then named the man.
“So there’s potentially a difference maker here, right? You put McReight in there who’s going to win turnovers and he’s going to get them. I think the All Blacks have to really focus on him and nullify that part of the game, cuz that’s going to be how they get into the game.”
McReight matters most when Australia are losing. He needs one All Black to carry into contact a half-second ahead of his support. The penalty or the steal then brings Australia back into a match they might be losing.
It takes three All Blacks to keep him off the ball. The carrier has to stay on his feet a beat longer. The first cleaner has to arrive before McReight sets. The second has to hit him, not the ruck. Get one wrong and he’s over it.
We gave McReight a 9 against Argentina in Jujuy.
Why Valetini had to earn his place
Paul, 72 Tests at hooker, put the depth behind the three.
“It’s been easily the hottest position to crack in that starting line. When you look at the players that are on the bench, like Tom Hooper, against Bobby V [Valetini], then you got the skipper right in Wilson. So with Harry Wilson being first selected and then Fraser McReight, world’s best, put a lot of pressure on Rob Valetini, and, you know, double John Eales Medallist has stood up. He’s such a big, big presence on the field.”
Valetini won the John Eales Medal in 2023 and 2024, back to back.
Read also: the case that Valetini should have been on the bench in Mendoza after 19 carries in Jujuy.
The All Blacks do not know their own
Asked by host Andy Rowe whether the back row was a Wallabies strength over New Zealand, Read answered for his own side.
“Our loose forwards aren’t a general weakness for us. I think it’s potentially where we’re at as a team right now is we don’t quite know our combination. Maybe our back line we’re settled on aside from a left winger… Our forward pack, we don’t quite know our best team, right?”
He put it down to time in the jersey.
“That’s probably a symptom of maybe the guys haven’t quite stepped up, but also they’re not quite getting long enough time to kind of nail their position… Whereas the Wallabies have got that sorted in terms of their starters.”
He was not writing his own side off.
“I feel our loose forwards have the ability to be a better loose forward trio and better players potentially when you look at them individually. But sometimes it’s putting that combination together which is the most important thing.”
“For me, I think Lakai is the guy who starts at number eight and we probably build our loose forward trio around him… I do think Ethan Blackadder had a good game in that last Test. So whether he stays at seven, and they probably put a big body again at six… Let’s back them for the rest of this year.”
Read said last month that they still do not know where to play Ardie Savea. With Savea injured the question has moved down the list, and Rennie has now given his answer.
He went with neither Read nor Kirwan. Vaa’i starts at six, Lakai at seven, Sititi at eight. Read wanted Lakai at the base. Blackadder, who John Kirwan backed at seven, is not in the 23, and Frizell is on the bench. Rennie has put Lakai on the openside, which makes him the man who has to beat McReight to the ball.
What to watch at the breakdown
Count McReight’s first three rucks on All Blacks ball. If he gets his hands on it once, Australia have their way into the game. If he is cleaned out before he sets all three times, the All Blacks have done the homework Read asked for.
Then watch who the Wallabies target. A new combination is always half a step out somewhere. McReight lives in that half step.
Read next: Jordie Barrett won five turnovers at Ellis Park, and Read explained why a centre was doing the openside’s work.
Your turn: is Rennie’s trio the right one?
Read wanted Lakai at eight. Rennie has him at seven, with Vaa’i at six and Sititi at eight, 88 caps against 159. Is that the trio that stops McReight, or would you have started Frizell? Name yours in the comments.
Frequently asked
Who is in the Wallabies back row for the Bledisloe Cup?
Rob Valetini, Fraser McReight and captain Harry Wilson started together in Perth and are all in the squad for Eden Park. Tom Hooper has returned to Exeter and Charlie Cale is not in the squad.
How many caps does the All Blacks back row have?
Tupou Vaa’i (51), Peter Lakai (14) and Wallace Sititi (23) start at Eden Park, 88 caps in all, per the team named on 8 October. Shannon Frizell (33) and Anton Segner (2) are on the bench. Ardie Savea and Luke Jacobson are injured.
Where did Kieran Read say this?
On The Good, The Bad & Rugby ANZ, in an episode released on Tuesday 6 October with host Andy Rowe, Justin Marshall and Jeremy Paul.
